Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR hits 3-year low as holders sell at a loss

Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $58,400 on Tuesday as on-chain data showed long-term holders selling at a loss for the first time in nearly three years, a pattern that has historically signaled cycle bottoms.

"The LTH-SOPR dropping below 1 shows that long-term holders are sitting on losses, which historically has been the point where they start to accumulate more BTC," CryptoQuant analyst Facunda said.

The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio fell to its lowest since July 2023, according to CryptoQuant. The metric tracks whether addresses holding BTC for at least 155 days are selling at a profit or loss, with readings below 1 indicating aggregate losses. The last time the SOPR dropped below 1 was in October 2022, when BTC traded near $20,000 — a level that marked the cycle bottom before prices more than tripled to $31,000 by April 2023.

The signal comes as Bitcoin tests critical support near $58,000, with bears targeting uncollected liquidity at the June 25 low of $58,115. A failure to hold would leave BTC without an obvious floor, while a recovery above $59,300 could shift momentum. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume reached $28.4 billion, above the seven-day average, as of 14:30 UTC.

Long-Term Holders Resume Accumulation

Despite the loss realization, long-term holders have been adding to positions. The supply of BTC held by long-term holders stood at 16.65 million coins at publication time, up 14% from 14.6 million on Nov. 26, according to Coinglass. The accumulation resumed at the end of 2025, nearly two months after October's record $19 billion liquidation event.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Adds Pressure

Bitcoin's decline accelerated as doubts emerged over US-Iran peace talks in Doha. Iran's Foreign Ministry said no meetings were scheduled, contradicting earlier claims by the US that high-level talks would take place on June 30. The uncertainty pushed crude oil above $70 a barrel and added to risk-off pressure across markets.

BTC put options continued trading at a 10%-plus premium to calls across all time frames on Deribit, showing persistent demand for downside protection. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, dropped 11% to 44%, suggesting traders expect consolidation rather than a sharp reversal. Ether traded at $1,580, down 1.7%, testing a level it has bounced from twice before.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.