Key Takeaways:
About 20% of Bitcoin miners are now unprofitable, JPMorgan said June 18, as the cryptocurrency trades well below its estimated $78,000 production cost for five consecutive months.
"Miners are becoming much more disciplined operators," Bradley Peak, global head of sales at VNISH, said. "In 2026, we are seeing miners move from maximum hashrate to maximum profitable hashrate."
Publicly traded mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone to fund operating expenses, exceeding their combined sales for all of 2025, according to TheEnergyMag data cited by JPMorgan. Mining difficulty dropped 10% in the second week of June, the second drawdown of that magnitude this year, as higher-cost operators powered down their machines.
The sell pressure from miner liquidations introduces a supply-side risk at a time when Bitcoin has already struggled to reclaim the $78,000 breakeven threshold. If hashprices remain in the $28-$30 range per PH/s per day, the share of unprofitable miners could grow, potentially triggering further difficulty adjustments and additional selling.
Hashrate Sensitivity Hits a Record Beta of 0.62
Over the past six months, the beta of mining difficulty to Bitcoin prices has risen to 0.62, meaning that for every 1% Bitcoin drops, difficulty tends to fall by about 0.62%, according to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. That sensitivity is higher than historical norms, reflecting a mining ecosystem where a larger share of operators are running close to breakeven.
Older hardware is particularly vulnerable. Machines consuming electricity at above approximately $0.06 per kilowatt-hour are currently unprofitable, according to CoinShares' first-quarter 2026 mining report. The 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC, and the next halving, expected around 2028, will cut it further to 1.5625 BTC, compressing margins further.
Energy Economics Replace Raw Hashrate as the Winning Strategy
Mining strategy has shifted from deploying maximum hashrate to maximizing profitable hashrate, industry executives said. "Buy-mine-sell is mostly dead," Michael Jerlis, CEO and founder of EMCD, said. "With hashprice near $29 per PH/s per day and fees around 1% on most days, the reward alone does not cover the bill."
The best-positioned miners are those with cheap power and the ability to redeploy hardware quickly. Lean private operators with all-in costs near $50,000 to $64,000 per coin, along with energy-backed sites, look strongest, Jerlis said. Public mining companies are increasingly splitting into two categories: those evolving into data center businesses through AI and high-performance computing contracts, and those remaining exposed to pure Bitcoin mining economics.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
