Bitcoin rebounds 11% to $66,500 as Iran deal shifts macro outlook

Bitcoin rose 11% from a 10-month low of $59,000 on June 5 to trade near $66,500 as of Monday, after President Donald Trump declared a peace deal with Iran complete and authorized the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dismantling three layers of macro pressure that had driven the selloff.

"The Iran deal removes the geopolitical risk premium that was weighing on risk assets, and it directly cools the inflation narrative that had the Fed boxed into a corner," Nina Volkov, a crypto macro analyst, said. "Lower oil means lower inflation expectations, which means the rate-hike scenario that markets were pricing in starts to unwind."

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil. Its closure in early June after US airstrikes sent Brent crude above $93 a barrel, pushed US CPI to 4.2% year-over-year — its highest reading since April 2023 — and hardened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep rates elevated through 2026. Brent slid more than 3% to near $87 a barrel after the announcement, while WTI crude fell toward $84.88. Bitcoin climbed to $65,844 on June 14, its highest level in nearly two weeks, as the broader crypto market cap recovered above $2.3 trillion.

The FOMC meeting begins June 16, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first policy decision on June 17. CME FedWatch data shows a 98.2% probability of no change to the 3.50%-3.75% rate. The updated Summary of Economic Projections and Warsh's press conference will determine whether the Iran-driven bounce holds or fades. A dovish signal on rate cuts would open the path to the CME futures gap between $75,000 and $79,000, while hawkish language on hikes could send BTC back toward the $60,000 support zone, where more than 50% of all Bitcoin was sitting in unrealized loss during the June 5 low.

Institutional accumulation accelerated during the drawdown

Strategy disclosed Monday that it acquired 1,587 Bitcoin between June 8 and June 14 for approximately $100 million at an average price of $63,024 per coin, bringing its total reserve to 846,842 BTC. The firm also sold 1.73 million shares of common stock during the same window, generating $209 million in net proceeds as it rebuilt its USD reserve to $2.25 billion. Strive, the Dallas-based asset manager, picked up 32 BTC between June 2 and June 7 at an average of $63,911 per coin, a 14% improvement in cost basis compared to its prior round.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first day of net inflows in nearly two weeks on June 12, pulling in $85.9 million after a record 13-day outflow streak that saw $4.4 billion exit the products. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $57.7 million of the recovery. Cumulative net inflows across all 12 funds stand at approximately $53.67 billion, down from about $58 billion in late April. Investment advisers, the largest ETF holder cohort, cut just 5.9% of their positions during the outflow streak, suggesting institutional conviction remained intact beneath the surface.

The next 72 hours will define the recovery's durability

Bitcoin is trading roughly 47% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,277. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 13, deep in Extreme Fear territory. On-chain data shows long-term holders now control approximately 16.3 million BTC, approaching all-time highs, a pattern that has historically preceded eventual recoveries.

The formal Iran deal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. If the agreement holds and the Fed avoids a hawkish surprise, two of the four forces that drove the June crash — the geopolitical overhang and the rate-hike narrative — will have lifted simultaneously. Key resistance sits at $65,800, with a breakout opening the path toward $75,000. On the downside, $60,000 remains the critical support level.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.