Bitcoin tops $81,000 as gold notches best month since 1999

Bitcoin climbed 4.5% to $80,792 on Tuesday after touching $81,165, as gold posted its best month since 1999 on a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields.

A dovish surprise from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh would push markets to refocus on the "debasement trade," reflecting renewed concern over Fed independence and US debt sustainability, Citi analysts said. A hawkish tone could stall both rallies.

Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,677.19 per ounce, its strongest level since mid-May, with the metal up about 13% this month and roughly 19% month-to-date. Gold futures touched a three-month high near $4,720. UOB analysts pegged the move as gold's best monthly performance since 1999, when a group of European central banks agreed to cap gold sales and ended a prolonged slide in prices.

The US Dollar Index has fallen 0.8% this month, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for foreign buyers. Treasury yields have held roughly 3 basis points lower for the month after the government's bond buyback plan, easing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin has moved in the same direction. The asset briefly lost the $80,000 level last week as critics questioned the same Treasury buyback plan before reclaiming it and pushing higher. A Strive executive pointed to Bitcoin's breakout against gold as evidence the asset's bear market has ended.

All eyes are now on Warsh, who speaks ahead of this week's Jackson Hole symposium, an annual central bank gathering where officials often signal future policy direction. Bitcoin's reaction to the Fed signals remains an open question given the asset's history of diverging from traditional safe havens even when the macro setup looks aligned.

A softer dollar and capped yields have driven the rally so far, and the Fed's next move could decide whether it extends or stalls. IG analyst Tony Sycamore said gold's break above resistance at $4,420 and its 200-day moving average around $4,515 confirmed a bottom following its late-June low of $3,942, with the next resistance zone at $4,900 to $5,000.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.