Bitcoin whales absorb $16.4B in losses as discounted valuations emerge

Bitcoin whales incurred $16.4 billion in losses by June 2026, pushing the asset into discounted valuation territory as a broader risk-on rally lifted prices.

"It doesn't mean we'll be bottoming out here, but we're at least close, and the ROI of buying here has historically been incredible," Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, said.

Bitcoin traded at $67,248 as of the Asian session on June 11, with trading volume jumping 40% over the prior 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.27 trillion, up 1.59%. Open interest rose 2.06% during the same period, showing fresh capital entering futures markets, Coinglass data shows. Over $480 million in total liquidations occurred across exchanges, predominantly in short bets, with more than $300 million in Bitcoin short positions at risk of liquidation if the price reaches $70,000.

The rally followed President Donald Trump's declaration that a peace deal with Iran had been reached and that the Strait of Hormuz is open for normal traffic, with the deal due to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. Stocks entered record territory on the same day — the S&P 500 climbed 1.65% to 7,554.29, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.07% to 26,683.94.

The discounted valuation — where the market prices Bitcoin below the average acquisition cost of large holders — creates a dual dynamic. Whale losses may trigger further sell pressure from distressed positions, but the discounted entry point could also attract new accumulation. "If inflation pressures ease and institutional investors finally begin feeling more comfortable themselves, the sharp gains following this announcement may end up looking less like a one-day relief rally and more like the opening chapter of a much larger bull cycle," Santiment, an on-chain analytics firm, said.

The $16.4 billion loss figure encompasses both realized losses from coins moved at a loss and unrealized losses on positions still held, reflecting the prolonged correction that followed Bitcoin's cycle peak. Large holders — entities controlling at least 1,000 BTC — have been the primary source of sell pressure during this period, according to Glassnode data. The aggregate cost basis for these whale cohorts now sits above the spot price, a condition that historically has preceded either capitulation or renewed accumulation.

When the market price falls below the realized price — the average cost basis of all coins — Bitcoin enters what analysts describe as discounted territory. This condition has occurred only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history, most notably during the 2018 bear market bottom and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both instances, the discounted phase lasted between two and six weeks before a sustained recovery began.

The key question for traders is whether the current rally to $67,248 represents a relief bounce within a larger downtrend or the beginning of a structural shift. Van de Poppe's accumulation thesis suggests that buying at current levels has historically produced outsized returns over a 12- to 18-month horizon. However, the lack of aggressive whale buying — a pattern visible in on-chain data — introduces uncertainty. If whale accumulation accelerates in the coming weeks, the $70,000 resistance level becomes the next major test. A failure to hold current support near $65,000 could see Bitcoin retest the $60,000 to $62,000 range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.