Cellebrite shares plunge 30% as ARR miss triggers guidance cut

Cellebrite DI Ltd. shares fell more than 30 percent after Q2 annual recurring revenue of $507.8 million missed its $510 million floor, prompting a full-year guidance cut.

"The immediate shortfall was concentrated in a limited number of large transactions that we expected to close in the quarter, but ultimately moved beyond our anticipated time line," Chief Executive Officer Shiven Ramji said on the earnings call.

ARR grew 21 percent to $508 million, but came in roughly $2.2-$5.2 million below the $510-$513 million range the company had guided. Revenue rose 16 percent to $131 million, with subscription revenue of $119.5 million accounting for 91 percent of the total. Adjusted EBITDA was $31.8 million, a 24 percent margin.

Metric	Actual	Guidance	Miss
ARR	$507.8M	$510-$513M	$2.2-$5.2M
Revenue	$131M	below consensus	undisclosed
Adj. EBITDA	$31.8M	—	—

The company cut its full-year 2026 ARR guidance to $550-$560 million, growth of 14-16 percent, from a prior range of $567-$573 million, or 18-19 percent. Full-year revenue guidance was trimmed to $555-$561 million, growth of 17-18 percent. Management cited elongated sales cycles, new procurement requirements tied to Cellebrite's foreign-entity status, and lower-than-expected pricing gains from Inseyets conversions in U.S. state and local government.

Ramji, appointed CEO effective Aug. 13, said the company is tightening sales qualification and forecasting discipline. The board accelerated a planned leadership transition from predecessor Thomas Hogan. Cellebrite raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA target to $153-$159 million, a 28 percent margin, despite absorbing nearly 3 points of currency headwind from the Israeli shekel.

For the third quarter, Cellebrite guided ARR of $524-$528 million and revenue of $145-$148 million, both below consensus. Management pointed to a first major FedRAMP deal for its Guardian platform with a U.S. federal customer, a seven-figure initial order, and Defense and Intelligence ARR growing 25 percent as signs the platform strategy is working.

Levi & Korsinsky said it is investigating potential securities law violations on behalf of CLBT investors, focusing on whether Cellebrite made materially false or misleading statements about its 2026 ARR and revenue growth expectations and Inseyets conversion trends. The firm ranked in the ISS Top 50 for seven consecutive years.

The guidance reduction was the central reason for the selloff, according to independent financial sources cited by the firm. The decline puts Cellebrite's market value near $2.78 billion, with the stock trading at roughly 44 times earnings. Investors will watch the Sept. 24 annual general meeting, where the board will vote on governance proposals, and third-quarter results for evidence that elongated deal cycles are resolving.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.