China humanoid robot market to hit RMB15 billion in 2026

China's humanoid robot market will reach RMB15 billion in 2026, TrendForce projects, as commercialization shifts from demonstrations to mass production across autos, 3C, aviation, logistics and energy.

"China's robotics industry is building directly on the electric-vehicle supply chain, with batteries, motors, cameras and sensors developed for EVs also feeding robots," Kyle Chan, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, said.

AgiBot had rolled 15,000 robots off mass production lines by June 2026 and is advancing into 3C manufacturing. UBTECH Robotics (09880.HK) has supplied products to Airbus, with pre-orders for its U1 reaching 13,361 units by end-June. Galbot partnered with CATL and won a RMB236 million embodied-intelligence equipment procurement tender.

The market is projected to grow at least 60 percent in 2027 as application scenarios multiply, putting Chinese humanoid makers — led by AgiBot, Unitree and UBTECH — at the center of a global race to commercialize physical AI.

Order Books Fill as Production Lines Scale

AgiBot's climb from 1,000 units in 2025 to 5,000 and then 10,000 within three months, before reaching 15,000 by June 2026, shows how quickly capacity expands once supply chains standardize. TrendForce attributed the acceleration to flexible production based on orders, joint development with partners and the allocation of specialized components. Unitree, whose humanoid revenue exceeded its quadruped business for the first time in 2025 at more than 51 percent of total revenue, aims to expand annual capacity to 75,000 units.

The order flow is broadening beyond early adopters. UBTECH's U1 pre-orders of 13,361 units and its Airbus relationship point to demand from aviation, while Galbot's RMB236 million tender with CATL, the world's largest battery maker, ties humanoids to the energy sector. Barclays data show China accounted for roughly 85 percent of new humanoid deployments worldwide in 2025, with global installations rising from about 2,000 in 2024 to 15,000 in 2025 and expected to reach 60,000 in 2026.

Barclays divides deployment into two waves: manufacturing, logistics and construction first, then healthcare, elderly care and other services once robots become better at switching between jobs and interacting with people. The near-term concentration in factories and warehouses reflects where the economics work today, with repetitive and physically demanding tasks the first to be automated.

Cost Declines Widen the Addressable Market

Cost declines are widening the addressable market. Barclays estimates Western-made humanoids have fallen about thirtyfold over the past decade to roughly US$100,000 per unit, while Chinese manufacturers offer robots for about US$50,000. Goldman Sachs Research pegs production costs at US$30,000 to US$150,000, a reduction of about 40 percent from its earlier forecast, driven by lower component prices and more supply-chain options.

China's structural advantages underpin the cost curve. The country produces more than 90 percent of the world's refined rare-earth materials used in magnets and accounts for 45 percent of global battery exports, while Barclays reports that 70 percent of robotics inventions worldwide since 2000 originated in China. TrendForce forecasts China's humanoid output will grow as much as 94 percent in 2026, with Unitree and AgiBot potentially accounting for nearly 80 percent of total shipments.

The data needed to train these machines is the other constraint. Steve Xi, chief executive of Lightwheel, said physical AI will require 1,000 times more data than large language models or autonomous-driving systems, and that software-based simulation is currently the only scalable route to accelerate robot training. Tesla can draw on data from millions of vehicles on roads, an advantage Chinese startups lack.

The RMB15 billion projection and growth of at least 60 percent in 2027 give investors a clearer read on which HKEX-listed names stand to benefit. UBTECH (09880.HK) trades as the most direct pure-play on the order book, while CATL (03750.HK) gains exposure through its Galbot partnership and embodied-intelligence procurement. Barclays sees the global humanoid market reaching about US$40 billion by 2035, with a rapid-production scenario worth as much as US$200 billion, though safety, reliability and energy consumption remain the key constraints on how fast that value is realized.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.