China's control of 80% of global tungsten supply is creating a sustained shortage of a metal critical for weapons and manufacturing, with new mines years from coming online.
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China's tungsten grip at 80% as supply crisis hits defense and industry
China's export controls on tungsten, where it controls 80% of global supply, are squeezing defense and industrial supply chains as wars deplete stockpiles.
"The tungsten topic comes up in almost every vendor conversation," Mark Vena, CEO and principal analyst at SmartTech Research, said. "Tungsten is the metal nobody talks about until missiles, factories, and machine shops all need it at the same time."
Global tungsten production reached about 81,000 metric tons in 2024, according to USGS data, with Vietnam a distant second to China. The US produces virtually none domestically. China tightened export controls in February 2025, citing national security, and continues to restrict shipments.
The US will require as much as 20,000 metric tons of tungsten annually well into the 2030s, according to estimates from Cove Kaz Capital, with Department of Defense sourcing rules set to restrict Chinese-origin tungsten from January 2027.
Kazakhstan Project Targets 12,000 Tonnes Per Year
Cove Kaz Capital is developing tungsten mining operations in Kazakhstan with projected output of 12,000 metric tons per year, equal to about 15% of current annual global mine production. The project's two open-pit reserves are expected to operate for more than 50 years, Executive Chairman Pini Althaus said.
The US government has committed up to $1.6 billion through the Export-Import Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation, including a $900 million commitment in November and a $700 million commitment in February. Cove Kaz has requested an additional $400 million from the Department of Defense, the Financial Times reported.
The project has drawn scrutiny because Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump invested in Skyline Builders Group in August 2025, a company that merged with Cove Kaz Capital on April 30 and is expected to trade as Kaz Resources once the deal closes in late 2026 or early 2027. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) has called on the Defense Department's inspector general to investigate transactions involving Trump family members and national security. A Trump Organization spokeswoman said the family had no involvement in the merger and has always been a passive investor with no management role.
Almonty Restarts South Korea Mine After 30-Year Hiatus
Almonty Industries completed Phase 1 commissioning of its Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea's Gangwon Province in March, marking the deposit's return to production after more than three decades. The Canada-based miner also operates a producing mine in Portugal. CEO Lewis Black said developing US domestic supply "makes good sense for customers and defense work," though no US tungsten mine has operated in 30 years.
Tungsten Shortage Reaches Dentist's Chair, Fishing Hole
Tungsten's reach extends beyond weapons into everyday life. Tungsten carbide tips dental drills, making them more efficient and causing patients less discomfort, said Dr. Elizabeth Sterner, assistant professor of chemistry at Lebanon Valley College. Tungsten weights are used in fishing as a less toxic alternative to lead. Tungsten carbide drills fabricate circuit boards for most electronic devices.
"Prices for all of these items may increase if there is a tungsten shortage, both due to the lack of tungsten itself and the lack of tungsten carbide machining tools that make these products," Sterner said.
Evan Mills, a financial analyst at Scholar Advising, said consumers will feel the shortage through delays in construction, higher costs for industrial equipment, and more expensive manufacturing. "There's still a fairly good-sized supply of this out there — it's just getting harder and harder to get it from a country that doesn't necessarily want to distribute it anymore," Mills said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
