China's yuan hits 3-year high as high-stakes Trump summit looms

China’s renminbi has climbed to its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in three years, a significant currency move that comes just days before President Donald Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for high-stakes trade negotiations.

"China may allow its currency to succumb to upward pressure as part of its trade negotiations with the U.S.," Goldman Sachs forex strategists said in a note. The bank’s analysis suggests the renminbi has been cheaper than it has been for several decades, giving Beijing room to guide it higher.

The currency’s sharp appreciation immediately drew attention from global markets, which remain highly sensitive to the economic posturing between the world’s two largest economies. The move signals that exchange rates could become a key bargaining chip in the upcoming talks, which are expected to address everything from tariffs on electric vehicles to broader market access.

Foreign-exchange markets are bracing for potential volatility as the summit approaches. A stronger renminbi could help temper criticism from Washington that Beijing has kept its currency artificially low to boost exports, but it also risks making Chinese goods more expensive and could impact the country's trade balance. The development follows a period of escalating trade friction, with the Trump administration threatening tariffs and ordering U.S. firms to curb certain trade with Chinese entities.

A Strategic Revaluation

Beijing’s decision to allow the yuan to strengthen is being widely interpreted as a strategic maneuver. By letting the currency appreciate before the summit, Chinese policymakers may be preemptively addressing one of President Trump’s long-standing complaints. This could be a concession aimed at achieving a broader deal or a signal that China is prepared to use its currency as a tool in the trade war.

The last time trade tensions escalated to this degree, resulting in new tariff rounds, global equity markets saw significant sell-offs and currency volatility spiked. Analysts are closely watching for any signs of retaliation or further escalation, which could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on economic growth.

Goldman Sachs Sees Undervalued Currency

The analysis from Goldman Sachs highlights a view that the renminbi has significant room to run. According to their models, the currency remains fundamentally undervalued after years of depreciation. A controlled appreciation could serve Beijing’s domestic goals by boosting the purchasing power of Chinese consumers and encouraging imports.

"Relations between the United States and China remain one of the most important factors influencing global markets," noted one analyst on X, formerly Twitter, whose post on the currency move gained widespread attention. The focus is now squarely on the summit, where any statement on currency policy or trade will be heavily scrutinized by investors. The outcome could set the tone for international trade, inflation, and capital flows for months to come.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.