CLARITY Act odds drop to 50% as June Senate vote hangs in balance

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law before 2027 have fallen to 50% on prediction market Kalshi, down from nearly 75% a week earlier, as a tightening Senate calendar and deepening disagreements over yield-bearing stablecoins threaten the crypto market-structure bill's path to a floor vote.

"June is the make-or-break month for getting the CLARITY Act to a Senate floor vote," Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, said. "The window is narrow, and the calendar is crowded."

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 bipartisan vote earlier this month, a milestone that followed months of negotiations over stablecoin yield provisions. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks crafted a compromise that would prohibit interest paid solely for holding payment stablecoins while permitting certain transaction-based rewards programs under specific conditions. Banking groups have continued to press for tighter restrictions, arguing such products could compete directly with traditional deposits. JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum publicly raised concerns about allowing stablecoins such as USDC to generate yield for holders.

The legislation represents the most comprehensive federal attempt to define a supervised pathway for digital asset issuers in the U.S., working alongside the GENIUS Act signed into law in July 2025. Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn has noted the bill still faces procedural hurdles including securing sufficient Senate floor support, reconciling differences with the House version, and obtaining a presidential signature.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal and Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad have jointly endorsed the CLARITY Act, mounting a coordinated public defense of privately issued payment stablecoins while calling on Congress to establish a statutory framework that would curtail the SEC's authority to pursue enforcement-driven crypto regulation. The push arrives as Coinbase continues its own legal proceedings with the agency over whether a broad class of digital assets qualifies as securities under the Howey Test.

A statutory framework that explicitly removes payment stablecoins from the SEC's jurisdictional reach would materially weaken the evidentiary foundation of the agency's broader enforcement theory by establishing, as a matter of federal law, that stablecoin instruments are not investment contracts, according to legal analysts tracking the legislation.

The Stablecoin Yield Divide

The treatment of yield-bearing stablecoins remains the central obstacle. The debate has pitted crypto companies seeking flexibility in offering rewards programs against banks that argue such products could disrupt traditional banking models. The latest Senate draft reflects the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise, which allows transaction-based rewards while banning yield paid solely for holding stablecoins.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the most prominent digital asset advocates in Congress, has continued to push for passage. Supporters argue that momentum remains intact despite the repricing in prediction markets, pointing to the bipartisan committee vote as evidence of sustained legislative interest.

The CLARITY Act, in its current Senate-stage form, would establish a federal framework for regulating digital assets and clarify the respective roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Traders on Kalshi cited the crowded Senate calendar, unresolved disputes over yield-bearing stablecoins, and continued resistance from banking interests as the primary factors behind the sharp repricing in passage probabilities.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.