Key Takeaways
Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped more than 10% over the past 24 hours to $0.11, part of an 11% weekly gain that has pushed the meme coin to a 10-week high. The move, which began around May 4, is supported by a significant increase in trading volume and record-level accumulation by large holders.
"The meme coin's +14% price rise over the past 10 days is very likely not just a coincidence," on-chain analytics firm Santiment said in a post on X. The firm highlighted a six-month peak in whale activity, with 739 transfers of $100,000 or more in a single day.
Data from Santiment shows that the 149 wallets holding 100 million DOGE or more now control a record 108.52 billion coins, worth approximately $11.6 billion at current prices. This accumulation by large-scale investors coincides with a 28% weekly surge in on-chain activity, adding weight to the rally as speculation around a potential SpaceX IPO continues to fuel narrative interest. The token's open interest also climbed from 2.4 billion to 3.7 billion DOGE.
However, the rally faces technical resistance and skepticism from some analysts. The price is currently pressing a descending trendline that has capped previous rallies, with the next critical level to watch being a close above $0.115 to open up a path to $0.13. Conversely, some analysts are pointing to a potentially over-leveraged market. CryptoQuant analyst J.A. Maartun noted that DOGE futures open interest swelled by 33% in just five days while the price remained in a tight range, a divergence that can signal a volatile unwind.
The primary driver behind the recent price strength appears to be structured buying from Dogecoin’s largest investors. According to Santiment, the concentration of holdings in wallets with over 100 million DOGE has never been higher. This cohort’s holdings now stand at 108.52 billion DOGE, indicating that conviction among its biggest backers is growing.
The surge in large transactions supports this view. The 739 daily transfers exceeding $100,000 represent the most active day for DOGE whales in six months, suggesting a coordinated increase in positioning rather than purely retail-driven momentum. This contrasts with other meme coins and even Bitcoin, where on-chain demand has been less decisive.
Despite the bullish on-chain signals, derivatives data presents a more cautious picture. The rapid 33% increase in open interest, from roughly 505 million to 683 million DOGE contracts in late April, occurred without a corresponding price breakout. This setup led analyst J.A. Maartun to open a 1 million DOGE short position, targeting a drop to the $0.09069 level.
This type of divergence, where leveraged bets increase far faster than spot price, often precedes heightened volatility. It creates a crowded trade where both long and short positions are vulnerable to a sudden squeeze. With the price now testing key resistance, a failure to break higher could trigger cascading liquidations from over-leveraged long positions. The 100-period moving average currently acts as dynamic support, with a drop below the $0.10 level seen as a potential invalidation of the bullish structure.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
