Key Takeaways:
- EIA weekly crude inventory data due Wednesday at 14:30 GMT
- API reported a 6.1 million barrel draw for the week ended June 26
- US crude production hit a record 13.934 million bpd in April
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EIA report to test oil market as US output hits record 13.9m bpd
The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday at 14:30 GMT, with traders watching for confirmation of a draw after the American Petroleum Institute reported crude stockpiles fell by 6.1 million barrels last week.
"The market is looking for sustained draws to validate the narrative that supply is tightening, but the bigger story remains the record US production," said Omar Tariq, an energy analyst covering oil markets. "The EIA's own June forecast for 13.7 million bpd in 2026 has already been exceeded by April's actual output."
WTI crude traded at $69.61 a barrel Wednesday, up 0.16%, while Brent rose 0.19% to $73.09, as a breakdown in Iran-US talks raised fresh supply concerns. The API data, released Tuesday, showed crude stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 26, according to market sources. Gasoline inventories also declined, the API reported. Official EIA data is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
The report lands at a pivotal moment for oil markets. Crude posted its steepest quarterly loss since 2020 in the three months through June, with Brent falling about $45 a barrel and WTI dropping roughly $31, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply disruption fears. The last time Brent recorded a comparable quarterly decline was during the 2008 global financial crisis, when it fell more than $50 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
US production continues to climb even as prices retreat. Monthly data released Tuesday showed output reached 13.934 million bpd in April, surpassing the EIA's own 2026 average forecast by more than 200,000 bpd. The Permian Basin drove the gains, with New Mexico setting a record at 2.37 million bpd and Texas hitting 5.83 million bpd, its highest since November. North Dakota also posted its strongest production since November at 1.13 million bpd.
The supply surge comes as demand signals weaken. Turkish manufacturing contracted in June, with the Purchasing Managers' Index falling to 47.1 from 49.8, as the Middle East conflict disrupted orders and supply chains, S&P Global data showed. OPEC+ is likely to raise output targets again from August, sources told Reuters, adding to the oversupply pressure that has pushed analysts to cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began.
A larger-than-expected draw in Wednesday's EIA report could provide short-term support for prices, while a build would reinforce the bearish glut narrative that has dominated since the US-Iran ceasefire. The EIA's weekly data has become a key reference point for traders calibrating the pace at which record domestic supply is absorbing demand, with the agency's own monthly figures now running ahead of its annual projections.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Reminder: At 22:30 Beijing Time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the government version of the weekly crude oil inventory report[2] US Crude Output Sets New Monthly Production Record[3] Oil prices post steepest quarterly and monthly losses since 2020, and analysts see glut ahead[4] No Brent crude oil cargoes set to load in August, a first for global price benchmark[5] Oil Edges Higher as Breakdown in Iran-US Talks Raises Supply Concerns
