Key Takeaways:
Ethereum (ETH) fell nearly 10% over the past week, hitting a low of $2,100 on Monday as its inverse correlation to rising oil prices reached a record high, according to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee.
“If one is wondering why Ethereum has been under selling pressure … to me, rising oil prices is the biggest headwind,” Lee said on X.
The analysis came as the price of Brent crude oil surged to $111 a barrel, a spike of roughly 66% since late February amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The sell-off in Ether accelerated over the past week, pushing the asset down 57% from its all-time high as it struggles against macroeconomic pressures that are also weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Lee described the current dynamic as “short-term tactical noise,” arguing that a reversal in oil prices would spark an Ethereum recovery. He maintained that the network’s long-term structural drivers, primarily real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and the growth of agentic AI, remain strong. Ethereum is the dominant network for tokenization, with over 60% market share, and major firms like BlackRock and JPMorgan have launched tokenized funds on the platform.
However, other market observers see a more complex picture. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that oil is just one of several headwinds creating “multi-factor pressure” on Ether.
“ETH selling pressure is also driven by ETF outflows, rising exchange reserves/whale selling, broader risk-off sentiment, and ETH’s underperformance vs Bitcoin,” Adziima said.
This broader risk-off sentiment was evident across the crypto market, with Bitcoin sliding below $77,000 as rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The 30-year Treasury yield recently rose to its highest level since 2007, compounding the pressure on speculative assets. While Lee projects a stronger ETH price through 2026, the immediate future appears tied to macroeconomic developments, from crude oil prices to central bank policy.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
