Gold demand splits as Asian buying offsets 270 tons of ETF outflows

Gold traded at $4,335.72 per ounce on COMEX, up 6.5% from last week, as Asian demand absorbed Western selling.

At least 270 metric tons of gold held in ETFs are in loss-making territory at prices below $4,250, and that figure would rise to 298 tons at $4,000, according to Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. US-listed gold ETFs shed 16 tons in May and 7 tons in the first week of June, Cooper said.

Swiss gold export data shows Hong Kong and India as the top two destinations, surpassing all other countries combined. US gold ETF holdings continue to decline while European funds are flat, and Asian ETF assets are rising at a pace with no sign of slowing, according to Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White.

Gold has fallen 25% from its January record of $5,595.73, and the 200-day moving average at $4,446 now acts as resistance. The next catalyst is whether the Iran ceasefire deal holds — a resolution could ease oil prices and reduce rate-hike fears, potentially removing the primary headwind for gold.

Western ETF Outflows Reach 270 Tons in Loss Territory

Gold's 25% decline from its January high has pushed a significant portion of ETF holdings underwater. Standard Chartered estimates at least 270 tons of gold in ETFs are in loss-making positions below $4,250, rising to 298 tons at $4,000. Outflows totaled 16 tons in May and 7 tons in the first week of June, Cooper said.

Strong US jobs data lifted rate-hike bets, sending gold below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two and a half years. That level — now resistance at $4,446 — marks a shift in market dynamics, one precious metals trader said. Gold surged 64% in 2025, the most in 46 years, before the reversal.

Swiss Trade Data Confirms Asian Appetite

While Western investors retreat, Asian buyers are stepping in. Switzerland ships more gold to Hong Kong and India than to any other destinations, according to trade data. Asian gold ETF holdings continue climbing rapidly with no signs of retracement, White noted.

Physical gold demand in India has shown resilience despite prices near $4,000, though bullion is trading at a discount, Reuters reported. Asian ETF assets remain smaller than Western counterparts, but White argues the data understates true demand. "Swiss export data already tells the story," he said.

For investors tracking gold, the West-versus-Asia demand split creates an unusual dynamic. If Western selling exhausts and Asian buying persists, gold could find a floor above $4,000. But if the Fed delivers a rate hike and the dollar strengthens, the 200-day moving average at $4,446 may prove a ceiling. The Iran ceasefire outcome in coming days will likely determine which scenario plays out.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.