Key Takeaways:
- COMEX gold fell to $4,194/oz, the lowest since March 23
- Citi lowered its three-month target to $4,000 from $4,300
- HK gold miners dropped 3% to 7%; Zijin Mining hit an eight-month low
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Gold futures sink below $4,200 as Citi cuts target to $4,000
COMEX gold futures fell below $4,200 an ounce for the first time since March, reaching $4,194, as Citi cut its three-month price target to $4,000.
"We see limited catalysts for a sustained move higher in the very near term," Citi's commodities research team wrote in a note Monday, lowering its forecast from $4,300 an ounce. The bank cited stabilizing real yields, a stronger short-term dollar bias and moderating safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks eased.
Gold closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2023 after stronger-than-expected US employment data on June 5 boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders now price in a 43% chance of a quarter-point increase in December, up from about 14% a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Spot gold traded at $4,213 an ounce, down 1.1%, while August delivery futures last changed hands at $4,230, down 1.3%.
Citi warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the summer, annual gold purchases could fall to $700 billion to $750 billion, potentially pushing prices back toward $3,500 an ounce — levels last seen nine to 10 months ago. The bank left its six-to-12-month target unchanged at $4,500, contingent on a dovish Fed pivot or renewed geopolitical turmoil.
Gold Miners Slide Across Hong Kong
The selloff extended to Hong Kong-listed gold producers. Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped as low as HKD28.92, its lowest since late September and an eight-month trough, before recovering to HKD29.72, down 3%. Chifeng Gold (06693.HK) slumped 6.9%, while Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) fell about 3%. SD Gold (01787.HK) declined 3.8%, and Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) lost 4.3%.
Silver and Industrial Metals in Focus
Citi reiterated its view that silver will outperform gold as the precious metals bull market broadens into industrial metals. The bank expects aluminum and copper to perform well in the second half of 2026. On Jan. 13, Citi had raised its zero-to-three-month gold target to $5,000 and its silver target to $100, citing heightened geopolitical risks and physical market shortages. Both metals subsequently reached new all-time highs.
Investors now await US consumer price index data due Wednesday and producer price index data Thursday for further clues on the Fed's rate path.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] ＜Commodity＞NY Gold Futures Once Sinks Below USD4,200 Mark; ZIJIN MINING Once Sets 8Mths+ Low; Citi Cuts Short-term TP to USD4,000/oz[2] Citi cuts near-term gold price target from $4,300 to $4,000, warns of limited upside - KITCO[3] Gold erases losses despite strong US jobs data as ceasefire hopes emerge - KITCO[4] Gold prices fall below $4,200 an ounce for first time since March[5] Citi trims 3-month gold target to $4,000 on softer demand
