Key Takeaways:
COMEX gold traded near $4,055 an ounce on July 13, holding below the $4,100 level as selling pressure eased and technical indicators pointed to waning downside momentum.
"The price action suggests bears are losing conviction near current levels, with the 20-period EMA turning upward and the RSI holding near 64," said Omar Tariq, a commodities analyst covering precious metals. "A sustained close above $4,085 would open a path toward $4,142 and $4,180."
Gold has oscillated within a $3,965-to-$4,085 range over the past two weeks, maintaining its footing above the rising trendline from mid-October. The metal rebounded from the 200-day simple moving average near $4,100 in late June, according to exchange data, and has since consolidated as buyers stepped in on dips. The RSI at 64 suggests mild bullish pressure without entering overbought territory, while the 20-EMA continues to slope upward.
The move comes as markets price in a 67 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60 percent a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Dovish remarks from Fed officials and softer employment data — private employers cut 153,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in over two decades — have bolstered expectations of easier monetary policy. A weaker US dollar, with the Dollar Index consolidating between 96.50 and 100.50, has also supported gold by making it cheaper for overseas buyers.
Silver followed gold higher, trading near $49.31 an ounce and approaching key resistance at $49.33. A decisive close above that level could trigger gains toward $50.64 and $52.00, according to technical analysis. The metal has maintained its bullish structure above the ascending trendline from late-October lows near $47.20, supported by consistent higher lows.
The outlook for both metals hinges on Fed commentary and upcoming inflation data. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak this week, with traders watching for confirmation of a softer monetary path. On the downside, a break below $3,965 in gold could trigger a retest of $3,887, while silver may pull back toward $48.40 if resistance at $49.33 holds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
