Hamas nears disarmament deal as Israel demands full demilitarization

Hamas is moving toward signing a phased disarmament agreement that would require the group to surrender all weapons within 6 to 8 months, a US official told Israeli media, as Israel pushes back against key elements of the emerging roadmap.

Negotiations between Hamas and international mediators in Cairo are making progress on a proposed plan that would fully disarm the militant group and remove it from power in Gaza, a diplomatic official told The Times of Israel. The 15-point roadmap, brokered by a US-led Peace Committee, calls for Hamas to hand over all heavy and light weaponry, surrender maps of its tunnel network and weapons factories, and transfer authority to a Palestinian technocratic government backed by an International Stabilization Force led by an American general from the Special Operations Command.

"Hamas may soon sign the agreement to gradually disarm," the US official said, according to Israeli Channel 12 television. The process would be reciprocal, with a strict monitoring and verification mechanism to ensure compliance.

Israel has rejected several provisions of the emerging deal, insisting it will not withdraw its forces from the so-called yellow line in Gaza until the territory is fully demilitarized. "There will be no Israeli withdrawal from the yellow line before Hamas is disarmed and the Gaza Strip is demilitarized," an Israeli official told i24NEWS, adding that the reported 15-point plan does not adequately address Jerusalem's requirements for complete disarmament. The official said the issue did not come up during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent White House meeting with President Donald Trump, and that Israel has conveyed its reservations to envoy Tony Blair.

The roadmap represents the most concrete attempt yet to translate Trump's broader peace plan for Gaza into operational steps. Under the proposal, authority would be gradually transferred to a technocratic government alongside the comprehensive dismantling and destruction of all tunnels, weapons depots, and production facilities throughout the Strip. The source involved in negotiations described this as "a new chapter for Gaza," noting that the guiding framework throughout has been Trump's comprehensive peace plan, whose stated goals are to provide a better future for Gaza's residents while ensuring Israel's security.

A successful disarmament deal would carry significant implications for regional markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of global oil trade passes, has been a flashpoint — Iran's IRGC said Thursday it turned back two oil tankers attempting to transit the waterway with US support after one caught fire. A Gaza deal could reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices, with Brent crude potentially facing downside pressure. Gold, which typically benefits from Middle East turmoil, could see safe-haven demand ease. The last time a similar de-escalation framework emerged in the region — during the 2021 Gaza ceasefire — Brent crude fell about 3% in the following week while the S&P 500 gained 1.5%.

The path forward remains uncertain. While mediators and the Peace Board insist on complete and total dismantling of all terrorist infrastructure — "it will not be acceptable for only some of the tunnels to be dismantled or only part of the weapons to be surrendered," a senior official involved in the process said — Israel's objections to the current framework could delay or derail the agreement. The coming days of Cairo talks will determine whether the roadmap can bridge the gap between Hamas's willingness to sign and Israel's demand for full demilitarization before any withdrawal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.