Key Takeaways:
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not mean a return to normal — not even close.
President Donald Trump and his team have promised normal traffic within 30 days, but shipping analysts, trade data firms and investment banks are projecting a far slower recovery, with Goldman Sachs warning that 70% of prewar flows may become the new 100%.
"The reopening of the Strait is unlikely to result in an immediate return to normal operations, given the reported need for minesweeping and the clearance of the backlog of vessels accumulated in the Persian Gulf during the disruption," said Alexander Karavaytsev, senior economist at the International Grains Council.
Before the war began on Feb. 28, about 100 ships transited the strait daily, carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products — about one-fifth of global consumption, according to the International Energy Agency. Today, visible flows through the waterway are estimated at just 1.3 million barrels a day, with an additional 1.6 million barrels from the Gulf of Oman that may be linked to so-called dark crossings, Goldman analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a June 17 note.
The gap between official optimism and market reality matters because the strait is the world's most important energy chokepoint. A slow recovery keeps oil prices elevated, shipping costs high and supply chains under strain — directly affecting everything from gasoline prices to fertilizer availability for global agriculture.
The 70% Ceiling
Goldman's analysis, titled "70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100%," argues that regional producers have built alternative infrastructure that will permanently reduce reliance on the strait. Saudi Aramco boosted usage of a cross-country pipeline routing crude to its Red Sea coast; the UAE tapped a pipeline to the port of Fujairah, which sits outside Hormuz; and Iraq sent oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Combined, those routes are now moving 7.5 million barrels a day, according to Goldman.
"Normalization in gulf exports to pre-war levels might be achieved with a 13-million-barrel-a-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels," the Goldman analysts wrote. They expect the pickup in shipments to be completed by the end of next month, with gulf production likely to recover by October.
Trade data firm Kpler offered a more conservative view, projecting shipping traffic would reach about 40% of prewar levels within a month — roughly 40 ships per day — "held back by unresolved questions on mining, Iranian control of passage." The group doesn't expect full normalization until "well into 2027."
Trapped Vessels and Lingering Mines
About 600 ships remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf, according to Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO. "We expect it will take several weeks for all ships to leave the Persian Gulf," he said.
The initial wave of departures will likely be vessels that have been stuck for months, a "flush out" that Kpler said would occur "without lifting underlying throughput." The key question is whether a significant number of ships will then seek to enter the Persian Gulf, given that the current US-Iran deal expires after 60 days and Iran has promised to charge tolls after that.
The Trump administration has rejected the idea of tolls and said it aims for the strait to be permanently toll-free, but acknowledged the issue will be part of negotiations to come.
Mines remain a practical concern. Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, said statements from the two governments "do not offer sufficient information regarding key aspects such as timings and safe routes" and warned of "a history of overly optimistic reassurances" from both sides. Trump downplayed the danger, describing clearing efforts as "doing a little hunting for a couple of mines," while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senators just weeks ago that Iran had mined "large segments" of the waterway.
A Structural Shift Away from Hormuz
The UAE is already working to make its Hormuz bypass permanent. "We're moving toward having zero Hormuz dependency and that's regardless of whether it's open or not," Thani Al Zeyoudi, the UAE's minister of foreign trade, said in an interview. The country is expanding its eastern ports of Dibba, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan — all on the Gulf of Oman coast, outside the strait — and building at least one new harbor on the same coastline.
Kuwait is also seeking alternatives. State producer Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is in talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE about expanding their pipeline systems to handle Kuwaiti barrels, Chief Executive Officer Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah told a conference.
Brent crude traded below $78 a barrel Thursday, down sharply from a war-driven peak above $126 in late April. The cease-fire extension and peace framework have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, but the structural shift in shipping patterns means oil markets may not fully reclaim the old normal.
"The experience of the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions shows that shipping patterns can remain below historical norms for years," the IGC's Karavaytsev said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
