Iran launches 17th wave of drone strikes on US Kuwait bases

Iran's military escalated its campaign against US forces in the Gulf for a 17th consecutive wave, striking American logistics hubs in Kuwait as the two-week conflict shows no signs of de-escalation.

Iran's 17th wave of drone strikes hit US ammunition depots and warehouses in Kuwait early Saturday, widening a conflict that has already killed 38 civilians in Iran and two American service members since the collapse of a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the two sides last week.

"The repeated targeting of host-nation infrastructure transforms this from a bilateral confrontation into a regional security crisis," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen. "Every Gulf state hosting US forces now faces direct exposure to Iranian retaliation, which fundamentally changes the risk calculus for energy markets and regional sovereign credit."

The Iranian Army's Public Relations office said the 17th phase of Operation Lightning deployed Arash loitering drones against the ammunition depot at Camp Adairi and equipment and personnel warehouses at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. The operation follows Iran's earlier strikes on US facilities in Bahrain and Jordan, including what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps described as a successful attack on a US drone depot and artificial intelligence center in Bahrain.

The escalation comes after the US Central Command completed its eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military facilities, targeting coastal surveillance systems, air defense batteries, maritime capabilities and missile storage sites. Iran's Health Ministry has documented at least 38 civilian fatalities and more than 400 wounded across Hormozgan, Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchestan, Khuzestan and Lorestan provinces, with strikes damaging bridges, power infrastructure and a railway junction near Bandar Abbas.

Strait of Hormuz and the Energy Risk Premium

The IRGC has asserted that Iranian forces maintain "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21 percent of the world's oil supply transits daily. The Corps warned that as long as US hostilities persist, "not a single drop of oil or gas" would be permitted to pass through the strategic waterway. Kuwait's national oil company confirmed that one of its primary facilities was targeted in an earlier Iranian attack, while a desalination plant in Kuwait sustained fire damage.

The last time the Strait of Hormuz faced a credible closure threat was during the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attacks, when Brent crude spiked 15 percent in a single session. The current escalation involves direct state-on-state strikes rather than proxy attacks, representing a more severe risk to regional supply chains.

Market Implications

Brent crude futures are expected to open sharply higher when trading resumes, with the risk premium reflecting both the direct supply threat and the potential for the conflict to draw in additional Gulf states. Safe-haven assets including gold and the US dollar are likely to see inflows, while equity index futures point to a risk-off open across Asian and European markets. Defense sector stocks may see short-term gains on expectations of increased US military procurement.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced that Tehran no longer considers itself bound by the 14-point MOU with the US, citing Washington's military escalation. The White House has maintained that Iran continues to seek a diplomatic resolution despite the ongoing strikes, though no new talks have been scheduled.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.