Iran-Oman Hormuz deal hands Tehran 5%-7% transit fee power

Iran and Oman are finalizing a deal that would hand Tehran control over inbound Hormuz shipping and allow transit fees of 5%-7% of cargo value, a senior Iranian official and two regional sources said.

"Recognizing state control over an international shipping lane would create a very dangerous precedent that will be replicated in other parts of the world," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

The proposed agreement combines the existing northern lane in Iranian waters and the southern lane in Omani waters into a single two-way corridor. Iran seeks fees of 5%-7% of cargo value, Oman proposes about 3%, and Washington insists no fees be collected. A compromise under consideration would define payments as "voluntary," though the implied threat of Iranian attacks could deter shipping companies from transiting without paying.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption and about a quarter of global LNG trade. Imposing transit fees would raise shipping and energy costs worldwide, potentially feeding inflation and adding a geopolitical risk premium across equity and commodity markets. The arrangement would be temporary, operating for two to four months, and signed exclusively between Iran and Oman.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed Wednesday that the two countries had agreed on the "coordinates" of the new route and were putting final touches on a joint statement. He said publication depended on "third parties not disrupting the process," an apparent reference to Washington.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told state television that negotiations were "very close to completion," with agreements in principle on nearly all issues. He stressed that Tehran "does not recognize the rights of any other country in this process" and that the deal would not necessarily lead to the automatic reopening of the strait — that depended on "the United States returning to its commitments under the memorandum of understanding."

Fee dispute: 5%-7% vs 3% vs zero

The fee structure remains the most contentious unresolved issue. Iran is demanding 5%-7% of cargo value, Oman is discussing about 3%, and Washington wants no fees at all. Making payments nominally voluntary could break the impasse, but shipping companies would face an implied threat of Iranian attacks if they declined to pay.

The agreement would mark a significant shift from the pre-war regime, when the strait was freely open to all ships with no fees or oversight. Before the war launched by the United States and Israel in February, international maritime law governed passage through the waterway. Should the deal be signed, Iran would become a self-appointed regulator of traffic through one of the world's most critical waterways.

Oil prices, munitions, and the reopening timeline

Oil prices ticked higher Wednesday after the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen said it had fired on a Saudi-flagged tanker in the Red Sea, the latest attack on Middle East shipping. But global crude prices remain close to their lowest levels since early July, having plunged after Trump called off fresh attacks on Iran citing the negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could be reached as early as Wednesday or Thursday, while Trump told Fox News that talks were "moving along nicely" and that the strait "is going to be open very soon." He warned that if Iran "backs out again, they are going to get hit really hard."

The last time the strait faced sustained disruption was during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when the "Tanker War" prompted US naval escorts and drove oil prices sharply higher. The current standoff has already persisted for more than five months, with US military strikes in July failing to break Iran's grip on the waterway. US commanders advised Trump that month that they were running low on some munitions, and Reuters reported Tuesday that the US Army had used up nearly all of its long-range precision missiles.

Experts say Washington may ultimately accept a deal that gives Iran nominal control in exchange for reopening the strait. "The US will not accept any post-war arrangement that would actually give Tehran more control over shipping in the region," said Basil Germond, professor of international security at Lancaster University. But Neil Quilliam of Chatham House said the US may agree to a settlement under which Iran receives "service" fees disguised as environmental payments, with Trump claiming it as a victory.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.