A threat by a senior Iranian official to enrich uranium to 90% is fanning fears of a wider conflict in the Persian Gulf, threatening to push oil prices toward $100 a barrel as the region’s fragile truce crumbles.
“If Iran is attacked again, our response may be to increase uranium enrichment to 90%,” Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said in a social media post on May 12, adding the issue would be reviewed by parliament. The threat comes after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal as “a piece of garbage,” stating the ceasefire in place since April 8 is on “life support.”
The warning follows an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in Qatari waters and the interception of two other drones by the United Arab Emirates, highlighting the escalating tensions. The conflict stems from Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli air offensive on February 28, 2026, that destroyed over 90 percent of Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities. A 90% enrichment level is considered sufficient for producing nuclear weapons, a line Washington has stated is non-negotiable.
This escalation threatens to choke the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy through which 21 percent of the world’s oil passes. Forcing a blockade could be a deliberate feature of the conflict, aimed at disrupting energy supplies to Asia and, most critically, halting China’s geopolitical rise, according to analysis from Argentinian economist Alejandro Marcó del Pont.
Geopolitical Chess Over Oil
Analysts argue the war's true objective transcends stated goals of nuclear non-proliferation or human rights. Strategic imperatives related to U.S. economic power and control over global oil distribution appear to be the primary drivers. “True power lies in the prerogative to close, to deny, to choke off,” states Marcó del Pont, suggesting the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a deliberate strategic move by Washington.
The argument centers on China, which receives approximately 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil and is the largest customer for Persian Gulf producers. By controlling the region's energy lifeline, the U.S. can exert immense pressure on Beijing’s economy and strategic ambitions. Economist Michael Hudson concurs, noting that U.S. strategy aims to “threaten countries with economic and financial chaos” by blocking their access to energy from rivals like Russia and Iran.
The Petrodollar's Precarious Position
Beyond direct energy control, the conflict serves to protect the decades-old petrodollar system, a cornerstone of the U.S. economy. Since a 1970s agreement, oil-producing Gulf nations have sold their oil exclusively for U.S. dollars in exchange for military protection, recycling those dollars into U.S. debt. This arrangement has shored up the dollar’s value and created a captive market for U.S. bonds, keeping interest rates stable.
However, this system is now under threat. Oil and gas are increasingly sold for other currencies, notably the Chinese yuan. In 2025, Venezuela sent over half its crude exports to China for yuan, and Persian Gulf producers, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront, supply half of China’s imported oil. This shift away from the dollar poses a significant risk to U.S. economic stability, potentially leading to rising interest rates on its massive debt, with interest payments already projected to hit $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2026.
The U.S. war with Iran, therefore, can be seen as a high-stakes imperial effort to maintain financial and trade dominance as its industrial base has waned. As Michael Hudson suggests, with de-industrialization, the U.S. has weaponized the dollar-centered financial system to maintain control. The risk, as analysts like John Bellamy Foster and Samir Amin have warned, is a catastrophic crisis for capitalism, potentially leading to wider, unlimited war and threatening human survival itself.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
