Iran said its armed forces will respond to any violation of the US-Iran ceasefire, keeping troops on high alert after both sides traded strikes near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
"Iran accepted the ceasefire arrangement at the request of friendly neighboring countries to help restore regional stability," Acting Defense Minister Iben Riza said during a phone call with Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler, according to a statement from Tehran. "Given the history of broken promises by the US, we have no trust in Washington."
The warning came as Brent crude rose 0.9% to $72.20 a barrel Sunday and US crude climbed 1.3% to $70.09, paring some of last week's declines that had pushed oil to its lowest since the conflict began. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles about one-fifth of the world's oil supply, remains in a state of flux with three distinct shipping routes now operating — one hugging the Omani coast, a second through the middle of the strait and a third under Iranian control.
The weekend's exchange of fire tested the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed June 17, which had triggered a 60-day window for negotiations. Technical talks remain "on track" and are scheduled to resume Tuesday in Doha, a US official said Sunday, though Iran's foreign ministry warned that further violations "will result in the complete halt of all diplomatic processes."
Oil Risk Premium Returns
The back-and-forth strikes have injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets that had begun pricing in a return to normal flows through the strait. Oil tanker traffic had increased following the June 17 signing, but the pace slowed after Iran struck a Panama-flagged vessel Thursday and the US responded with strikes on 10 Iranian military targets, including air defense sites and drone storage facilities near the strait.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by launching ballistic missiles and drones at what it described as "eight key pieces of infrastructure" at the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait and the Fifth Naval Fleet in Port Salman, Bahrain. A US official said none of the Iranian projectiles hit their intended targets and there were no American casualties.
The last time the US and Iran engaged in direct military exchanges near the strait was during the opening weeks of the conflict in late February, when oil prices surged past $120 a barrel. Brent crude remains well below that level, though the average US gasoline price of $3.87 a gallon Sunday is still almost 30% higher than before the war began.
Diplomatic Path Hangs in Balance
Riza's comments highlight the fragility of the ceasefire arrangement. The acting defense minister said foreign military presence in the region "not only fails to create security but also increases distrust, uncertainty and insecurity" — a direct reference to US forces stationed in Gulf states including Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately warned that any interference in Tehran's management of the Strait of Hormuz will escalate tensions. "Once obstacles are removed, the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war capacity within 30 days under Iran's exclusive management," he said.
The US has rejected any Iranian tolling or management system for the waterway. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said Sunday that Washington will "continue to, militarily, if needed, take down their infrastructure that they're trying to use to illegally control an international waterway."
President Donald Trump escalated the rhetoric Saturday evening, posting on Truth Social that "there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.