IRGC Navy keeps Strait of Hormuz control as 11 vessels head to Iran

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it will maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed a deal to reopen the waterway and end hostilities across the Middle East.

"The IRGC Navy continues to exercise full operational control over the Strait of Hormuz and all maritime traffic transiting it," the force said in a statement carried by Iranian state media, according to Xinhua News Agency.

Eleven vessels, including five oil tankers, are expected to arrive at Iranian ports on Thursday, the report said. That came as at least 10 commercial ships were tracked moving through the strait earlier in the day — a noticeable uptick from recent weeks but still far below the pre-war average of about 135 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic.com data. Among the ships making the crossing was a French-flagged liquefied natural gas carrier operated by QatarEnergy and a vehicle carrier owned by Italian logistics company Grimaldi Group, both of which had been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the conflict began.

The standoff threatens to unravel the memorandum of understanding signed Wednesday at the G7 summit in France, which Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said would take "immediate effect" with Iran reopening the strait and the U.S. lifting its naval blockade. The waterway handles about a fifth of global oil supply, and any sustained disruption could push crude prices sharply higher, reigniting inflationary pressures across the world economy.

Deal terms face immediate test

The MOU, signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, calls for the "permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," where Iran-backed Hezbollah has been fighting Israeli forces since March. Iran's foreign minister said earlier this week that any Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon would constitute a violation of the agreement. Israel's military said Thursday its troops would stay in the "security zone" — an area extending about six miles into Lebanese territory — and is holding "stubborn negotiations" with the U.S. over the deployment, according to two Israeli officials cited by Reuters.

Several sanctioned Iranian tankers that crossed the U.S. naval blockade line earlier in the week were still en route to Iranian ports on Wednesday morning, vessel tracking data showed. Cargo ships and oil tankers owned by Hong Kong and Chinese companies continued broadcasting that they had Chinese crew on board, a tactic adopted at the start of the conflict when Iran said it would target vessels linked to the U.S. and Israel.

Oil markets on edge

The Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime passage in and out of the Persian Gulf, handles roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day — about 21 percent of global consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The last time the waterway faced a sustained threat was during the Iran-Iraq Tanker War in the 1980s, when crude prices swung more than 50 percent over an 18-month period. Brent crude has already priced in a risk premium since the conflict erupted, and any further escalation could push oil above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, analysts have said.

The IRGC's announcement creates a two-track reality: diplomatic progress at the presidential level alongside continued military control on the water. Whether the IRGC — which answers to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, not the president — will ultimately comply with the deal remains the central question for oil markets and global trade.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.