Key Takeaways:
Israel's election pits Benjamin Netanyahu against Gadi Eisenkot in a race that will determine the country's war strategy and its relationship with Washington.
Criticism of Israel targets the country itself, not just Benjamin Netanyahu, a Wall Street Journal opinion piece argues, as the prime minister and challenger Gadi Eisenkot run nearly even in polls with Likud at 22 seats.
"It isn't really Benjamin Netanyahu that infuriates Israel's critics, it's Israel itself," Stuart Creque wrote in the Journal. The letter was published July 29, the same day Netanyahu met President Donald Trump at the White House for the first time since the two leaders launched the war against Iran in February.
A Kantar poll showed Likud leading with 22 seats while Eisenkot's National Unity party trailed by one seat, with the two candidates matching each other in support for prime minister. The right-wing bloc secured 49 seats, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc excluding Arab parties reached 60 seats. Netanyahu secured eight reserved slate spots within Likud's top 30 positions and is considering shifting the party to digital primaries, following his favorable impression of an online primary held by the Democrats party.
The outcome carries implications beyond Israel's borders. Netanyahu's White House meeting exposed strains over the Iran war, with Trump saying there were "some disagreements" and making clear he prefers a diplomatic deal to continued fighting. An AP-NORC poll found a dramatic erosion of American support for Israel. "We've lost America. Thank you, Bibi," Israeli commentator Ben Caspit wrote in Maariv.
The letter flags Eisenkot's positions on maintaining Israel as the Jewish homeland and universal IDF recruitment, arguing these would draw the same international condemnation Netanyahu faces. The last time Israel held a similarly tight election was in 2019-2020, when three inconclusive rounds led to a unity government that collapsed within months.
Washington and the Iran Factor
Netanyahu's visit this week highlighted the diplomatic tightrope. While he plans to share intelligence on Iran's nuclear program at a site called "Pickaxe Mountain," Trump initially resisted meeting him amid policy differences over Iran and Lebanon, CNN reported. Vice President JD Vance, who attended the meeting, warned Israeli officials in June that Trump was their only friend among world leaders, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the US and Israeli positions on Iran were "pretty close," while Netanyahu told Fox News that Iran's regime "must either fall or be weakened enough to abandon its nuclear ambitions." The divergence reflects a broader strategic gap: Trump faces pressure to end an unpopular war ahead of midterm elections in November, while Netanyahu has sought to continue military operations against Iran and Hezbollah.
Domestic Political Shifts
The election campaign is already turning contentious. Shas Council of Torah Sages member Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef has signaled support for Eisenkot, saying Netanyahu has "no chance" of repenting. Outgoing Likud MK Dan Illouz claimed a third of the party's lawmakers wanted to replace Netanyahu after the October 7 massacre, though Likud dismissed the report as "fake news."
Meanwhile, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani threatened to arrest Netanyahu during a future visit, calling him a "war criminal." Trump rejected the proposal, saying Netanyahu would not be arrested in the US. Senator John Fetterman called Mamdani's plan an "unrealistic stunt."
The election will determine whether Israel continues its current military posture in Iran or pivots toward the diplomatic track Trump favors. Netanyahu told Fox News he hoped to hear what Trump "has in mind" for Iran, adding: "If he can do so without returning to intense military fighting, that's fine. Why not? But one way or the other, they have to end their nuclear program."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
