Meloni approval dips below 40% as Trump feud escalates

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's approval rating has slipped below 40% as a public feud with President Donald Trump threatens to fracture trans-Atlantic ties among nationalist allies.

A public spat over a G7 photo has exposed the unraveling of Trump's closest European alliance, with Meloni's approval dipping below 40% as she confronts a US president increasingly viewed as a political liability across the continent.

"Meloni must have calculated that a public row with Trump yields no tangible consequences, other than an increase in her domestic and international standing," said Mattia Diletti, a political science lecturer at Sapienza University of Rome.

The feud erupted after Trump told Italian broadcaster La7 on June 19 that Meloni "begged" for a photo at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France. Meloni responded with a video calling the claim "completely fabricated." Trump doubled down on Truth Social, accusing her of seeking a photo "over and over" and criticizing Italy's refusal to let US military aircraft use the Sigonella air base in Sicily for airstrikes in Iran. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani canceled a planned trip to Washington in response.

The rift carries significant economic implications for Europe. Italy's refusal to support US military operations in Iran has already disrupted energy markets, while Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European goods and reconsider NATO membership have added to uncertainty. With the NATO summit in Ankara next month and Secretary of State Marco Rubio scheduled to visit Italy on Wednesday, the feud threatens to reshape the trans-Atlantic alliance at a critical juncture.

The breakdown marks a sharp reversal for two leaders who once cultivated a close relationship. Meloni was the only European leader to attend Trump's 2025 inauguration, and Trump promoted the English-language version of her autobiography, with a foreword by his son Don Jr. Vice President JD Vance wrote the foreword for her 2026 book Giorgia's Vision.

But the Iran war proved a breaking point. Italy, which depends heavily on gas imports, was especially vulnerable to the economic fallout from the conflict. Meloni strongly opposed the war from the start, calling it destabilizing for the Middle East. When Trump attacked Pope Leo XIV in April over the pontiff's condemnation of the war, Meloni called the insults "unacceptable," prompting Trump to say she was "no longer the same person."

European Nationalist Right Distances From Trump

Meloni is not alone in stepping back. Across Europe, nationalist right politicians who once celebrated Trump's election are now seeking to distance themselves from a US president whose approval ratings have fallen even among their own supporters.

In France, Marine Le Pen and her allies have distanced themselves from Trump as public opinion turned against him. In the UK, 37% of voters surveyed cited Nigel Farage's support for Trump as the top reason they would not support Reform UK. Hungary's Viktor Orban lost his re-election bid despite a visit by Vance in the final days of the campaign.

"For these parties, it was always going to be difficult to defend the interests of the US over the interests of their own nation states," said Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at LUISS Guido Carli University in Rome. "Everyone is fleeing from Trump — both because of what he says and because of the Iran war."

The shift has market implications. European defense stocks have rallied on expectations of increased military spending as NATO's future is questioned. The euro has weakened against the dollar as trade uncertainty persists, while gold has gained as a safe haven. The VIX, a measure of US equity volatility, has remained elevated as geopolitical risks mount.

Meloni's response to Trump reflected both personal offense and political calculation. "As for my popularity, being your friend certainly has not helped it," she said in a statement. "My popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy's national interest. In any case, my popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.