Key Takeaways:
- Deutsche Bank raised NIO's price target to HK$86 on strong ES9 demand.
- The bank forecasts Q2 non-GAAP net profit of 180 million yuan, up 304%.
- NIO's ES9 secured over 25,000 non-cancellable orders since its May launch.
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NIO jumps 2% as Deutsche Bank forecasts 304% profit surge
NIO shares rose 2% in overnight trading after Deutsche Bank forecast a 304% jump in second-quarter profit.
"The strong performance of high-margin SUV models, particularly the ES9, is driving the profitability improvement," Wang Bin, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note Monday.
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 450,000 vehicles, up 38% from the previous year, and increased its price target to HK$86 from HK$84.50. The bank also cut NIO's 2026 loss forecast by more than 35%. NIO reported adjusted operating profit of 66.8 million yuan in the first quarter, with gross margin expanding to 19%, marking a second straight quarter of non-GAAP profitability.
The rally came despite the Pentagon adding NIO to its list of Chinese military companies. NIO rejected the claim as "unjustified" and said it may pursue legal action. The company does not sell vehicles in the U.S. due to 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
The newly launched ES9 SUV delivered 3,108 units in its first four days following its May 27 launch. Deutsche Bank estimates the ES9 has secured more than 25,000 non-cancellable orders, with delivery wait times of eight to nine weeks for base models and as long as 16 to 17 weeks for higher-end variants. NIO expects to deliver its 10,000th ES9 this month.
The ES8 also remains a key growth driver, delivering 11,475 units in May and extending its streak of monthly deliveries above 10,000 units to seven consecutive months. NIO delivered a record 37,705 vehicles in May and expects second-quarter deliveries of 110,000 to 115,000 units.
NIO's momentum comes as competition intensifies in China's premium SUV market. Huawei-backed Aito recently launched an updated M9, while Li Auto and NIO have publicly clashed over vehicle performance comparisons.
The Deutsche Bank upgrade signals that NIO's SUV-focused strategy is delivering measurable financial results. Investors will watch June delivery numbers for confirmation of the ES9 ramp and whether the company can sustain its non-GAAP profitability trajectory through the second half of 2025.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Is NIO's Path to Positive Operating Profit Becoming Clear?[2] NIO Stock Jumps Overnight: Deutsche Bank's 304% Profit Growth Outlook Drowns Out Pentagon Military Tag Concerns[3] NIO Stock Jumps Overnight: Deutsche Bank's 304% Profit Growth Outlook Drowns Out Pentagon Military Tag Concerns - TradingView[4] NIO Stock Jumps Overnight: Deutsche Bank's 304% Profit Growth Outlook Drowns Out Pentagon Military Tag Concerns - Stocktwits[5] Analysts expect Nio to sustain non-GAAP profitability in Q2 on strong SUV deliveries - CnEVPost
