OKX's Rafique sees Bitcoin sliding to $55K as Clarity Act stalls

OKX's Haider Rafique said the Clarity Act is unlikely to clear Congress before the midterm elections, warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $55,000 if the crypto market structure bill fails.

"I don't believe there is enough Democratic support for it to pass," Rafique, global managing partner for Corporate Affairs and Investor Relations at OKX, told CoinDesk. "Why would they want to give Republicans such a significant win on a highly polarizing piece of legislation before the midterms?"

The Senate announced it would not vote on the bill this month, pushing the next opportunity to September when lawmakers return to Washington. Rafique said most of the legislation's positive impact is already reflected in Bitcoin's price, with passage likely to generate only a modest 3%-4% rally. Failure, however, could trigger a sharper decline toward $55,000 before attracting significant retail buying interest.

The Clarity Act is widely regarded as the crypto industry's most consequential U.S. market structure bill, with supporters arguing it would establish clear federal rules for digital assets and encourage institutional participation. Without clarity, Rafique said, entrepreneurs will continue to build offshore, pointing to companies such as Hyperliquid and Backpack that chose non-U.S. jurisdictions.

Political calculus outweighs policy merits

Rafique dismissed Democratic concerns over ethics provisions as inconsistent, arguing lawmakers should instead adopt broader restrictions on public officials participating in financial markets. He described the Clarity Act as critical to the future of the U.S. digital asset industry, saying clear federal rules would help retain entrepreneurs, investment and intellectual property increasingly built overseas.

"There is only one Silicon Valley and one Wall Street," Rafique said. "The U.S. should be creating the environment for these companies to build at home."

ICE joint venture targets tokenized equities

Separately, Rafique outlined plans for OKX's joint venture with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), describing it as a key step in the exchange's long-term U.S. strategy. The partnership is initially focused on distributing ICE market data and products to OKX's roughly 150 million global customers. The companies are working with ICE's futures teams to introduce perpetual futures and other derivatives linked to traditional assets in Europe and the UAE.

Longer term, the venture aims to bring issuer-backed tokenized equities, spot products and futures contracts onchain. Rafique said issuer-backed tokenized stocks offer a more sustainable market structure than synthetic or wrapped equity models because investors retain the same governance and shareholder rights as holders of the underlying shares.

OKX resumed its U.S. expansion in 2025 after resolving a long-running case with the U.S. Department of Justice over unlicensed money-transmitting activity.

The regulatory timeline remains the single largest swing factor for U.S. crypto markets. If the Clarity Act fails to advance in September, exchanges and institutional investors face continued fragmentation across state and federal rules, while offshore venues capture a growing share of U.S.-born innovation.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.