OpenAI IPO could be 2nd largest in history says 1 VC

Tenacity Venture Capital founder Ben Narasin predicts OpenAI’s eventual public offering will be the second largest of all time, a forecast that lands just as the AI leader clears a major legal hurdle from Elon Musk. Speaking on Squawk Box, Narasin’s comment puts a number on the immense investor appetite for AI pure-plays, following the wildly oversubscribed listing of AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems.

"For years, retail investors often entered once companies were already public and much of the upside had already played out,” Diego Martin, CEO of Yellow Capital, told Decrypt regarding the new wave of pre-IPO market access. “This feels like the beginning of a much bigger shift in who gets to participate.”

The market is already pricing in a colossal valuation. While Cerebras Systems raised $4.8 billion in the largest tech IPO of 2026 so far, its order book was 20 times oversubscribed. Meanwhile, on-chain futures markets are trading pre-IPO contracts for companies like SpaceX at implied valuations near $1.78 trillion, according to data from the Hyperliquid platform. OpenAI’s last private valuation stood near $730 billion, a figure set before its recent legal victory.

What’s at stake is the timeline for what could be a multi-trillion dollar public debut. While a federal court just dismissed Musk’s lawsuit seeking to dismantle the company, an appeal is already planned. For investors in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and the broader AI rally, the verdict clears a path for an IPO, but the appeal keeps a significant risk on the books.

Musk Lawsuit Dismissed, But Appeal Looms

A federal advisory jury in Oakland, California, dismissed all claims in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI on May 18, a verdict the judge immediately accepted. The suit, which accused co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman of abandoning the company’s non-profit mission, was thrown out on a statute of limitations technicality, with the jury finding Musk was aware of the conduct he was challenging as early as 2021.

While the verdict prevents a potential $150 billion judgment and the removal of OpenAI’s leadership, the fight is not over. On CNBC, Jim Cramer argued Musk won the larger war by forcing OpenAI into a costly, two-year legal defense that consumed cash and executive attention ahead of a planned IPO. Musk has already vowed to appeal the decision to the Ninth Circuit, calling the verdict a "calendar technicality" on X and keeping the litigation risk live for at least another year.

Pre-IPO Markets Price in Trillion-Dollar Valuation

The legal drama unfolds against a backdrop of ravenous demand for AI-related assets. The recent IPO of AI chipmaker Cerebras (NASDAQ:CBRS) saw its offering 20 times oversubscribed, ultimately pricing at a $48.8 billion valuation. On secondary markets like Hiive, shares traded 17 percent above the high end of the offering range before the debut.

That enthusiasm is spilling into more novel on-chain venues. Platforms built on frameworks like Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 are allowing traders to bet on pre-IPO prices for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, an opportunity previously reserved for institutional investors. A pre-IPO perpetual contract for SpaceX, for example, is already trading at levels that imply a valuation of roughly $1.78 trillion. These markets have demonstrated remarkable accuracy, with one deployer pricing Cerebras perpetuals within 3 percent of its Nasdaq debut while traditional secondary platforms were 35 percent off.

For investors, this means the path is clear for an OpenAI listing that could dwarf other recent tech IPOs, with Microsoft standing as a primary beneficiary due to its significant stake. The dismissal of Musk's primary lawsuit removes a major overhang from any prospectus, though the pending appeal will remain a disclosed risk factor.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.