Prediction market volumes hit records as World Cup drives $31B on Kalshi

Polymarket and Kalshi posted record monthly trading volumes in June, with the World Cup driving $31 billion in notional volume on Kalshi alone.

"The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment," Asaf Meir, chief executive officer at market integrity firm Solidus Labs, said.

Polymarket's international exchange recorded $10.8 billion in notional volume during June, reversing a two-month downtrend, per Dune Analytics data. Its U.S. platform did $3.5 billion, nearly double May's $1.77 billion. Kalshi's $31 billion represented a 70% jump from $17.9 billion in May, with daily volume exceeding $1 billion since the tournament began June 11. Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood that debuted in June, saw $2 billion in volume and now accounts for 7% of U.S. prediction market volume, according to Bank of America.

Kalshi's open interest has climbed above $1 billion, while Polymarket's sits just under $400 million. More than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket has been traded on whether the U.S. will win the tournament, though odds stand at 4.3% and 3%, respectively. Polymarket launched a competition awarding up to $2 million for a perfect knockout bracket. The World Cup surge tests whether prediction markets can sustain high volumes under regulatory scrutiny as institutions watch how the platforms perform.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.