Putin says economy measures working as oil nears $100 on Iran war

Russian President Vladimir Putin said measures to support the economy are delivering positive results, as the war in Iran pushes oil toward $100 a barrel and reshapes global trade flows.

Putin's endorsement of Russia's economic support measures comes as the Iran conflict creates a dual-edged dynamic — lifting revenue for energy exporters while squeezing trade margins through surging logistics costs. The president's remarks, delivered during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, offered no specific data but signaled confidence in the resilience of an economy navigating overlapping geopolitical shocks.

"The continuation of the war in Iran may have both positive and negative consequences for the Russian economy," Sergey Katyrin, president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, said June 4 at SPIEF-2026. "If the conflict will continue, maybe the oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. In this regard, our companies that trade oil and gas have additional profits."

Brent crude has rallied on supply disruption fears tied to the Iran conflict, which has also drawn in US and allied forces. Katyrin said higher oil prices would boost revenue for Russian energy firms. Yet freight and insurance costs have climbed sharply, with the chamber president noting that higher logistics expenses can "minimize, if not to zero at all, the margin" from foreign trade operations. The impact varies by industry and company, he added.

The competing forces leave Russian businesses navigating a narrow path: higher commodity revenue offset by diminished trade profitability. The EU is considering raising its price cap on Russian oil to at least $65 a barrel from $60, Bloomberg reported May 31, while US licenses for Russian crude supplies remain a temporary measure, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said June 2. Rubio added that he personally advocates an early end to the licensing practice.

Sanctions Relief and Market Pricing

The potential easing of Western oil restrictions reflects the extent to which the Iran conflict has disrupted global energy markets. The last time a major Middle East supply shock coincided with sanctions relief for a sanctioned producer was during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war's early months, when Brent surged above $130. That episode saw Russian crude exports initially hold steady before Western caps and insurance restrictions gradually tightened flows.

The EU's next scheduled review of the price cap in July could push the ceiling to at least $65, narrowing the discount on Russian crude relative to Brent. The bloc has already imposed sanctions on hundreds of vessels and is planning measures against companies servicing tankers, according to Bloomberg.

Geopolitical Crosscurrents

The SPIEF gathering itself unfolded under heightened security after Ukrainian drones struck St. Petersburg hours before the forum opened June 3. The attack underscored the reach of the conflict into Russia's second-largest city, even as the Kremlin projects economic normalcy at the annual event.

Katyrin acknowledged that logistics disruptions from the Iran war are raising costs across supply chains. "Sometimes this minimizes, if not to zero at all, the margin from the entire so-to-speak operation of purchase and sale, delivery of goods," he said. For companies dependent on trade routes through or near the conflict zone, the added expense can erase profitability on individual transactions.

The net effect on Russia's economy depends on how long the Iran conflict persists and whether oil prices sustain current levels. If Brent holds above $90, the revenue boost to energy exporters could outweigh trade friction costs for the broader economy. If the conflict de-escalates quickly, the temporary oil windfall would fade while logistics disruptions could linger.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.