Real-estate agents flee industry as US housing slump enters 4th year

The slowest US housing market in four decades is driving real-estate agents and mortgage lenders out of the industry at the fastest pace since the 2008 financial crisis.

The National Association of Realtors counted 1.412 million members in April, down 12% from a peak of 1.6 million in October 2022, as the slowest housing market since 1982 stretches into its fourth year. Existing-home sales relative to total households last year were the weakest in 44 years, according to an analysis by First American Financial.

"We just became a bleeding artery," said Kim Taylor, a former Fort Worth, Texas-based agent who closed her brokerage this spring after launching it in mid-2023. "The last 11 months have been the hardest of my career."

Only 71% of agents surveyed by NAR in 2025 said real estate was their sole profession, the lowest proportion in data going back to 2005. The typical agent with two years or less of experience completed just three transactions in 2024, earning $8,100 in gross income, while the typical agent of any experience level did 10 deals and earned $58,100. Mortgage industry employment has fallen almost 40% from its 2021 peak, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the count of loan originators doing at least 10 deals a year has roughly halved.

The exodus threatens to reshape an industry that swelled during the pandemic-era boom, when near-zero mortgage rates fueled a buying frenzy. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovering near a nine-month high and transaction volumes at multi-decade lows, the pipeline of future deals remains constrained, pushing more agents and loan officers to seek income elsewhere.

A hollowing of the middle class

Mark Johnson, managing partner at Recruiting Insight, a consulting firm that works with real-estate brokerages, said the most productive agents are still succeeding, but the downturn has "hollowed out what I'm going to call the real-estate professional middle class." Many agents who entered the field during the 2020 boom found the transition to a slow market unsustainable.

Erica Rojek of Silver Spring, Maryland, got her license in 2021 and closed four deals in both 2022 and 2023, earning about $45,000 in commissions each year before taxes and expenses. She closed just one deal in 2024 and gave up her license in early 2025. "It's a lot of energy and a lot of money just to exist as a real-estate agent," she said, citing costs for licensing, brokerage fees, marketing and coaching. "When you're not closing the transactions, it makes it really hard to continue."

Spillover beyond agents

The housing downturn is rippling through adjacent industries. Sheri Lane, who sells home-warranty policies in Texas, said her sales are down from a few years ago. "If the homes aren't moving, it's going to affect all of us," she said. Mortgage-loan officer Tristan Holt quit in April after moving to Detroit last year and struggling to gain momentum. "Once the whole Iran conflict started it was like, 'Man, there's not enough business out there to be had,'" he said. Holt is now looking for a job in banking or insurance.

The slowdown is also accelerating consolidation. Smaller brokerages are being acquired by larger firms that can invest in technology or offer multiple business lines such as title and escrow services, creating one-stop shops for buyers and sellers. A legal settlement in 2024 that changed how agents get paid has further squeezed margins, encouraging some buyers to forgo hiring an agent entirely.

The housing market's trajectory now hinges on the path of mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates later this year, lower borrowing costs could unlock pent-up demand and stem the exodus. But if rates remain elevated, the industry's contraction may deepen further, with more agents and lenders exiting before the next cycle begins.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.