Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on July 22, but the net supply increase will be far smaller than the headline figure.
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Ripple's 1 billion XRP unlock adds less supply than headline suggests
Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on July 22, but the net supply increase will be far smaller than the headline figure.
XRP traded at $1.10 as Ripple released 1 billion tokens from escrow July 22, though the net supply increase will be far smaller than the headline suggests.
"Ripple typically re-locks 60% to 80% of each monthly escrow release within days, leaving 200 million to 400 million XRP as the effective market supply," according to XRPScan data tracking the escrow contract's release and return patterns.
The 1 billion token release follows Ripple's pre-programmed schedule that unlocks the same amount monthly from a smart escrow contract. Of the roughly 62.5 billion XRP in circulation, the company has released about 55 billion through this mechanism since 2017, with the majority returned to escrow. The XRP Ledger's burn mechanism has destroyed only about 14 million tokens total since inception, making supply growth almost entirely one-directional.
The distinction between the headline unlock and the effective supply matters because XRP's persistent monthly issuance — 200 million to 400 million tokens — compounds in a market already short on buyers. XRP ETF inflows have fallen from $131.9 million in May to near zero in July, and new wallet creation on the XRP Ledger hit a nine-month low of 2,130 on July 11, according to XRPScan. Without the CLARITY Act to unlock institutional demand — which Polymarket traders price at 43% odds for 2026 passage — the supply overhang keeps XRP pinned near $1.
Ripple's escrow system was designed in 2017 to create predictable supply visibility. Each month, 1 billion XRP unlocks from the smart contract, and the company returns most of it to a new escrow within days. The portion Ripple keeps — typically 200 million to 400 million tokens — goes toward partnerships and operational expenses through OTC distributions rather than exchange sales. Still, the cumulative effect is dilutive. With the full 100 billion supply scheduled to enter circulation over the coming years, the circulating supply grows by several hundred million tokens annually, while Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million with new issuance halving every four years.
The supply dynamic is particularly acute now because demand has weakened. XRP is down about 70% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, and the institutional buyers expected to absorb new supply have largely stayed on the sidelines. Spot XRP ETF inflows have stalled near $1.49 billion total, with almost no new money entering in July. The CLARITY Act, which would codify XRP's commodity status into federal law and potentially unlock institutional demand, faces a Senate floor vote before the August 7 recess. Its passage odds on Polymarket stand at 43%.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Ripple's 1 Billion XRP Unlock Isn't the Full Supply Story[2] XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Hit Double Digits?[3] Why Is XRP Not Going Up?[4] XRP Ledger surpasses 1M agentic transactions, growth expected: RippleX[5] XRP Holders Have Until July 23 to Find Out if a Key Crypto Bill Survives. Here’s What’s at Stake.
