Gold's third secular bull market since the 1970s remains in its early stages, with structural demand from central banks and financial investors supporting prices well above current levels, according to Rockefeller Global Investment Management.
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Rockefeller sees gold at $5,500 by 2027 and $8,000 by 2030
Gold's third secular bull market since the 1970s remains in its early stages, with structural demand from central banks and financial investors supporting prices well above current levels, according to Rockefeller Global Investment Management.
Gold will trade above $5,500 an ounce by 2027 and reach $8,000 before 2030, with overshoot potential to $10,000, Rockefeller Global Investment Management said.
"We believe gold entered its third secular bull market in 2022, analogous to prior regime inflection points in the early 1970s after the Bretton Woods system collapsed and at the turn of the millennium," Doug Moglia, macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, said in a report.
Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, representing about 20 percent to 25 percent of global mine production, as reserve managers shifted away from dollar-denominated assets following the sanctioning of Russian foreign exchange reserves. Purchases eased to 863 tonnes in 2025, but Western financial investors filled the gap, with global ETF holdings surging nearly 20 percent to more than 3,000 tonnes.
The current bull cycle is in its fourth year with gains of about 200 percent, compared with prior secular bull markets that lasted nearly a decade, Moglia said. The key condition required to end the rally — a reversal of gold's status as the preferred reserve asset — has not appeared, he added. Gold reserves currently account for about 31 percent of total central bank reserves, compared with 56 percent for dollar-denominated assets.
Silver's Upside Narrows as Ratio Normalizes
Silver more than doubled, rising 152 percent since the start of 2025, outpacing gold's 92 percent gain. The gold-to-silver ratio briefly reached 100 in May 2025 — only the second time in 50 years — before normalizing back to the 50-to-60 range, Moglia said. "Given this normalization, we see silver's tactical upside versus gold as more limited," he wrote.
The silver market has been in structural deficit since 2021, driven by demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and semiconductors, with more than 50 percent of consumption coming from industrial uses. However, about 70 percent of silver production is a byproduct of mining other metals, limiting supply response to higher prices. Gold's demand drivers are more concentrated in investment and central bank holdings at 45 percent, with jewelry accounting for another 40 percent.
Mining Equities Offer Leveraged Exposure
Gold and silver miners may offer a more attractive way to capture the next phase of the precious metals rally, Moglia said. Operating margins for the gold and silver miner index are near 40 percent, the highest since 2011, while the top five miners are expected to generate about $20 billion in free cash flow in 2025 at margins near 30 percent.
The ratio of gold and silver miners to spot precious metal prices remains near 0.7, in line with the 2020 peak but well below levels seen during the 2000s cycle, suggesting room for re-rating. Unlike physical gold, which carries storage costs and yields no income, miners provide positive cash flow while maintaining operating leverage to higher gold prices, Moglia said. Rising concerns about Federal Reserve independence, increasing US fiscal risks and geopolitical shocks including the recent breakout war with Iran are reinforcing the bullish gold setup, he added.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
