Solana drops 5% to $73 as trend line break opens path to $60

Solana fell 5% over the past seven days to $73.39 after breaking a long-dated trend line support, increasing the odds of a sustained decline toward the $60 cycle low, according to CoinGecko data as of 14:30 UTC.

"Solana's trend line break confirms that sellers remain in control, and the failure to clear the $78 resistance has opened the door for a retest of the $60 area," Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen, said. "The 2x risk-reward ratio on a short position from current levels makes this a compelling setup for traders."

Trading volumes rose to nearly $1.9 billion following the breakdown, signaling that selling pressure may be accelerating. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart sits at 43, and a move below 40 would further confirm bearish momentum, data from Coinglass shows.

On-chain metrics paint a deteriorating picture for Solana DeFi. DEX volumes on the network are on track to finish the month with a 30 percent decline, representing a 66 percent drop from this year's peak of $136 billion in January, according to DefiLlama. The waning interest in meme coins — a key driver of Solana's on-chain activity earlier this year — has contributed to the slowdown.

Macro headwinds compound the bearish case

Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices elevated, translating into sticky inflation that reinforces a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. In a high-rate environment, investors tend to rotate out of risk assets like cryptocurrencies toward low-risk yield products, according to CME FedWatch data.

The macro backdrop has also weighed on Solana's weekly chart. The token trades below all major moving averages — the 20-week MA at $80, the 50-week at $122, the 100-week at $148, and the 200-week at $108 — keeping the long-term trend under pressure. The weekly RSI near 38 has recovered from oversold territory but remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting the bearish grip has eased only marginally.

Key levels to watch

The first take-profit level for a bearish move sits at $68, followed by the $60 area, which marks Solana's current cycle low. A weekly close below $60 would open the path toward the previous cycle low near $52, where buyers may attempt another defense.

On the upside, Solana needs a sustained weekly close above $80 — the 20-week moving average — to attract fresh buying interest. A move above $100 and $108 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers have regained control of the long-term trend.

A signal from Solana's daily active users has historically preceded strong price moves. In late June, the 30-day moving average of active addresses crossed above the 50-day MA, a pattern that preceded Solana's sharp descent in January. That move has yet to fully materialize, but the latest trend line break may be the confirmation needed to determine direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.