Key Takeaways:
SpaceX's post-IPO slide follows a pattern that has tripped up nearly every large listing since 2019 — and the next two AI giants face the same trap.
SpaceX trades 18% below its $135 offering price six weeks after its public debut, a trajectory that mirrors the post-IPO performance of other mega-cap listings in the current rate cycle, according to fresh analysis from Apollo Global Management.
"The boom pushed marginal companies public before they were ready, while the market-adjusted benchmark was set against an index carried by a handful of mega-cap winners," Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, told Business Insider. "Each of these forces could persist."
Sløk's research examines IPO performance since 2019 and identifies three forces that crushed new listings: peak entry valuations, a hostile interest-rate environment, and benchmark returns dominated by a narrow set of mega-cap winners. SpaceX debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The S&P 500 has returned roughly 12% over the same six-week period, meaning the rocket company has underperformed the broad index by about 30 percentage points since listing. Jay Ritter, a longtime IPO scholar at the University of Florida, had predicted the lag. His call proved accurate within weeks.
The stakes extend beyond SpaceX. Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1 after closing a $65 billion funding round that valued it at $965 billion. OpenAI followed a week later, targeting a $1 trillion valuation with a potential listing as soon as September. Together with SpaceX, the three companies carry combined valuations approaching $4 trillion. Their public debuts will test whether the private-market euphoria around AI and space survives the quarterly discipline of public ownership.
The Historical Playbook Repeats
The last IPO boom, in 2020 and 2021, saw zero interest rates and eager retail investors fuel a wave of listings that later cratered. Companies that went public at peak valuations struggled to justify their multiples as the Fed raised rates by 525 basis points from March 2022 through July 2023. The current environment is structurally similar: the fed funds rate sits at 4.25% to 4.50% after the Fed held steady at its June meeting, and OIS markets price just 50 basis points of cuts through year-end. Mega-cap concentration persists — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon alone account for roughly 22% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, per Bloomberg data. New public companies must beat that benchmark every quarter. Most don't.
Recent large tech listings show the divergence. Cerebras shares jumped 68% on day one. Figma's offering delivered a 250% first-day gain, the largest for any deal above $10 billion in five years, according to FactSet. But first-day pops mask longer-term performance. SpaceX's decline accelerated after its initial trading sessions, with the stock falling nearly 45% from intraday highs at one point, according to social media posts from AI news accounts tracking the listing.
What the AI Trio Faces Next
OpenAI reported $2 billion in monthly revenue as of mid-2026, with 900 million weekly users and 50 million paid subscribers. Growth runs four times faster than Meta and Alphabet at comparable stages. Yet the company does not expect profits until 2030. Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate reached $47 billion. Both companies raised billions at escalating valuations — OpenAI secured $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation in its most recent round, per CNN Business.
The gap between revenue growth and profitability creates a vulnerability that public markets punish more aggressively than private backers. Broadcom delivered 48% revenue growth in its second quarter yet its shares fell 13%. Nvidia shed $600 billion in market value in a single day in January 2025. Public markets forgive less, and the bar set by mega-cap incumbents keeps rising.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, told CNN that expectations that seem manageable in private markets can become relentless under the glare of public ownership. Quarterly results replace vague promises. Growth must stay explosive. For SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, the question is not whether they can raise capital — they have proven that repeatedly. The question is whether they can meet the quarterly standard that has crushed every mega-IPO since 2019.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
