Nearly 12.5 million barrels of crude oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a single night as Iran allowed shipping to resume under a fragile US-brokered truce.
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Strait of Hormuz sees 12.5M barrels flow as Iran complies with deal
Nearly 12.5 million barrels of crude oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a single night as Iran allowed shipping to resume under a fragile US-brokered truce.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports effectively collapsed Wednesday night as 12 vessels carrying 12.5 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz, Vice President JD Vance said, marking the first large-scale test of a ceasefire framework signed June 15.
"Iran has complied with the agreement so far," Vance said. "Their only way to profit is to continue good behavior, otherwise they get no benefit."
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, a 14-point pact mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, lifted the US blockade in exchange for Iran reopening the waterway to commercial traffic. WTI crude traded near $81 a barrel Thursday, down roughly 33% from March highs above $120, as markets priced in the resumption of flows through a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil supply. Bitcoin rose about 3% to around $66,000 on the news, while the broader risk-on move pushed the S&P 500 up 0.6% in Wednesday's session.
The 60-day negotiation window that opened with the June 15 signing will determine whether the truce holds. Iran has pledged not to develop nuclear weapons, while the US has agreed to unfreeze up to $25 billion in Iranian assets contingent on compliance. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Islamabad.
The blockade's collapse and what comes next
The overnight transit of nearly a dozen vessels represents the most concrete evidence yet that the ceasefire framework is operational. During the height of the conflict, Iran had threatened to close the strait entirely and experimented with cryptocurrency-based toll collection systems to monetize its control of the waterway. The US Treasury subsequently cracked down on $344 million in crypto-facilitated transactions linked to those efforts, according to enforcement records.
The agreement's enforcement mechanism remains untested. Vance's warning that Iran "gets no benefit" from non-compliance underscores the conditional nature of the deal. The 30-day window for Iran to restore pre-war shipping volumes is the first benchmark — if traffic normalizes, oil prices could face further downside as the supply-risk premium dissipates. Demining operations and verification procedures in the strait will take additional time, meaning actual shipping volumes may lag behind the diplomatic headlines by weeks.
Market implications beyond oil
The geopolitical thaw has already rippled across multiple asset classes. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, fell 1.8 points to 14.2, its lowest level since before the blockade was imposed in April. Gold slipped 0.7% to $2,318 an ounce as safe-haven demand receded. The potential release of $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets introduces a new liquidity variable — some portion could flow into cryptocurrency markets, given Iran's history as one of the more active Bitcoin mining jurisdictions under sanctions.
For energy markets, the key question is whether the supply response materializes as expected. OPEC producers have maintained output discipline through the crisis, and a flood of Iranian crude returning to global markets could test the group's cohesion. The last time a similar diplomatic breakthrough occurred — the 2015 JCPOA — Iranian oil exports rebounded by roughly 1 million barrels per day within 18 months, according to International Energy Agency data. The difference this time is that Iran's export capacity has been constrained by sanctions for years, and the infrastructure to ramp up production may take months to reactivate.
The nuclear negotiations, set to conclude by mid-August, represent the biggest risk to the current trajectory. Iran's enrichment activities and uranium stockpile have been persistent sticking points in every diplomatic effort dating back more than a decade. If talks collapse, the blockade could be reimposed, sending oil prices sharply higher and reversing the risk-on trade that has taken hold this week.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] US Vice President Vance: 12.5 Million Barrels of Oil Transported Through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday Night[2] Iranian tankers loaded with oil sail past US Navy blockade — but Tehran still hasn’t opened Strait of Hormuz[3] US and Iran sign Islamabad memorandum, lifting naval blockade and reopening Strait of Hormuz[4] US and Iran sign initial peace deal to open Strait of Hormuz, sending oil down and Bitcoin up[5] US and Iran sign deal on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz, with indirect ripple effects for crypto markets
