Swiss watch exports drop 17% as US tariff hangover distorts trade

A 56% plunge in US-bound shipments dragged Swiss watch exports down 17% in April, reversing a pre-tariff buying frenzy a year earlier.

Swiss watch exports fell 16.6% in April from a year earlier, when manufacturers rushed to ship inventory to the US ahead of threatened tariffs, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported Tuesday.

"Excluding the US, exports rose 3% in April and were up 1.7% year-to-date, which is more consistent with the gradual recovery in the watch market," said Manuel Lang, an analyst at Vontobel.

Shipments to the US, the industry's largest single market, tumbled 56% in April. That compares with a 149% surge in the same month of 2025, when watchmakers accelerated deliveries to beat the imposition of higher US tariffs on Swiss-made timepieces. The base effect distorted the headline figure: total exports of about 1.9 billion Swiss francs in April 2026 were roughly in line with the 1.8 billion francs recorded in April 2024, before the tariff-driven spike.

The data shows how US trade policy continues to inject volatility into global luxury supply chains. Swiss watch exports to the US surged as companies front-loaded shipments, only to collapse once the tariff regime took effect. The hangover could persist for several more months as US retailers work through elevated inventory levels built up during the rush.

The Federation's April data marks the latest sign that tariff uncertainty is reshaping trade flows in unexpected ways. While the headline 16.6% decline appears severe, the underlying trend — excluding the US — points to a modest recovery in global demand for Swiss timepieces after a prolonged downturn that began in late 2023.

Asia, the industry's second-largest regional market, showed mixed results. Exports to China fell 8.4% in April, while shipments to Hong Kong rose 2.1%. Japan posted a 5.3% gain, and Singapore climbed 4.8%. The divergence reflects uneven consumer confidence across the region, with mainland Chinese luxury spending still under pressure from a sluggish property market and weak economic sentiment.

The European market was broadly stable. Exports to the UK rose 3.2%, while Germany and France posted modest gains of 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. The Middle East continued to outperform, with shipments to the United Arab Emirates jumping 12.5% and Saudi Arabia rising 9.7%, as wealthy consumers in the Gulf region increasingly turn to luxury goods.

For Swiss watchmakers including Rolex, Swatch Group AG, and Richemont, the US tariff disruption adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging demand environment. The industry had been grappling with a post-pandemic normalization after a record 2022, when pent-up demand and a strong US dollar drove exports to an all-time high of 24.8 billion francs. The current US tariff regime threatens to erode margins on the industry's most profitable market, where Swiss watches have historically commanded premium pricing.

The next data release from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, covering May exports, will offer a clearer picture of whether the US market is stabilizing or facing a prolonged contraction. For now, the April numbers serve as a reminder that trade policy shocks can create statistical distortions that obscure the true health of an industry.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.