UBS projects Amazon will earn $509 billion in net income by 2030, surpassing Nvidia's projected $450 billion to become the world's most profitable company. The bank sees AWS growth accelerating to 48 percent in 2027 as OpenAI and Anthropic commit to multi-gigawatt Trainium chip contracts.
UBS projects Amazon will earn $509 billion in net income by 2030, surpassing Nvidia's projected $450 billion to become the world's most profitable company.
The projection comes from a new UBS estimate published Aug. 4 that lays out a multi-year profit ramp for the Seattle-based company. The bank sees Amazon posting roughly $120 billion in net earnings in 2026, about $281 billion by 2028, and approximately $509 billion by 2030, according to the report.
On a per-share basis, UBS pencils out $45.16 in EPS at the end of that curve, implying Amazon trades at about six times the bank's 2030 profit estimate. Full-year 2025 net income was $77.67 billion on $716.92 billion in revenue. In Q2 FY2026, Amazon reported operating income of $27.46 billion, up 43 percent year over year, and net income of $62.65 billion — though that figure was inflated by $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income tied to the Anthropic investment.
The math behind UBS's projection sits inside AWS. The cloud unit grew 37 percent year over year in Q2 FY2026 to $42.23 billion in revenue — its fastest growth in 18 quarters — at a 39.4 percent operating margin. Growth has accelerated for four straight quarters: 20 percent in Q3 2025, 24 percent in Q4 2025, 28 percent in Q1 2026, and now 37 percent. UBS models AWS growth reaching 48 percent in 2027 as OpenAI begins running workloads on Amazon's Trainium chips.
OpenAI has committed to roughly 2 GW of Trainium capacity through AWS beginning in 2027, and Anthropic is on the hook for up to 5 GW of current and future Trainium chips. Amazon's AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion in Q2, both growing at triple-digit rates. Layer 48 percent growth on top of a segment already running at a $169 billion annualized revenue pace, and AWS becomes the profit engine capable of dragging total net income into the half-trillion neighborhood.
Amazon is spending to make it happen. CEO Andy Jassy told investors the company will invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across 2026 on AI infrastructure, custom chips, robotics, and satellites. Q2 capex alone hit $54.21 billion, up 68.44 percent year over year.
Amazon shares closed at $284.02 on Aug. 3, up 23.05 percent year to date and 32.26 percent over the past year. In the week following the Q2 earnings report, the stock ran 22.75 percent, from $231.39 on July 27 to $284.02 on Aug. 3. Amazon carries a market capitalization of roughly $2.92 trillion, while Nvidia sits at about $4.86 trillion.
Advertising, another high-margin segment, grew 26 percent to $19.81 billion in Q2, with trailing twelve-month ad revenue crossing $70 billion. Guidance for the current quarter points to operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, versus $17.4 billion in Q3 2025. Analysts have a $321.95 target price on the stock, with 16 Strong Buy, 43 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings and no Sells.
If Amazon merely hits UBS's $120 billion 2026 net income estimate, it will already be earning at a pace that closes the gap against Nvidia's $120.07 billion in FY2026 net income. From there, UBS argues that Trainium-driven AWS acceleration does the rest of the work.
The projection puts a specific dollar value on Amazon's AI-driven profit trajectory, with the near-term event to watch being Q3 FY2026 earnings and Amazon guiding net sales of $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion. The story hinges on AWS holding its acceleration and Trainium demand from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta converting into the profit ramp UBS is modeling.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
