The Trump administration is demanding Iran issue a public statement by Saturday guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handles about a fifth of the world's traded oil, as negotiations hang in the balance after the ceasefire collapsed.
The Trump administration is demanding Iran issue a public statement by Saturday guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handles about a fifth of the world's traded oil, as negotiations hang in the balance after the ceasefire collapsed.
The US gave Iran until Saturday to publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and free of attacks on commercial shipping, even as President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire "OVER!" but agreed to continue talks, senior administration officials said Friday.
"We are demanding a public statement from Iran that the strait is open, with no tolls, and a promise to stop attacking commercial ships," a senior US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. The official added that the statement must include "explicitly or at least implicitly acknowledging that they screwed up."
The US is "expecting" Iran to take that position in a meeting with Omani officials on Saturday, a second official said, adding that "if it's not their position, then it's not going to be a great day for them." The officials said Iran privately acknowledged the recent ship strikes were a mistake by a rogue hard-line faction trying to sabotage the ceasefire, though the US held Tehran responsible regardless. Iran's UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, countered Friday that any activity in the strait "rests exclusively with Iran" and that vessels should begin paying fees to Tehran.
The standoff over the strait — through which about a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas passed before the war began in late February — threatens to reignite a global energy crisis. Oil prices have dropped sharply from wartime highs of $120 a barrel, but any sustained disruption to the waterway could send crude spiking again, fueling inflation and pressuring central banks already navigating an uncertain rate path.
Nuclear Material and the Power Struggle in Tehran
Any final nuclear deal with Iran will require Tehran to turn over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — what one official called "nuclear dust" — believed to be buried after US strikes last summer. "Simply, if they don't give us the dust, we don't have a deal," the first official said, adding that the US has "a lot of options" including continued military, diplomatic and economic leverage if talks fail.
The negotiations are complicated by an internal power struggle in Iran following the killing of longtime leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US and Israeli strikes at the start of the war. A third senior official described the current dynamic as a "wait-and-see moment," noting that Iran wanted to wait until Khamenei's funeral Thursday to "conclude some of the big items." The last time a similar leadership vacuum coincided with a regional crisis — after the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020 — Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, sending Brent crude above $70 a barrel within days.
Regional Fallout and Diplomatic Efforts
The collapse of the ceasefire triggered a new wave of violence Thursday, with unclaimed airstrikes hitting areas across southern Iran as the country prepared to bury Khamenei. Iran responded by launching a wider volley of attacks targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar, with one person reportedly hurt in Kuwait as air defense systems intercepted incoming fire.
Diplomatic efforts are intensifying. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi plans to discuss the strait with his Omani counterpart at a meeting Saturday in Oman, state-run IRNA reported. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said he believed "a solution can be reached" this weekend. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke separately with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Qatar's ruling emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, stressing the need for restraint. The UAE's leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, traveled to Kuwait for emergency talks after the Iranian attack.
The US continues to urge mariners to travel on a southern route through Oman's territorial waters to avoid Iran, a sign of the fragility of the situation. If Iran retains effective control over the strait, it could emerge with greater strategic leverage, threatening global oil transit and keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices for the foreseeable future.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
