US denies Hormuz escort resumption as oil steadies near $92

The US military denied it has resumed escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing back against reports that the waterway was reopening as crude oil steadied near $92 a barrel.

"Operation Freedom Plan has not been reactivated, and US forces are currently not escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command said in a statement Monday, denying a Wall Street Journal report that the Navy had restarted assisted crossings.

The denial came after the Journal reported the Navy guided a Greek super tanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil through the waterway off the Omani coast. CENTCOM said it plans to assist about a dozen vessels over the coming days but denied this constituted a renewal of the earlier escort program. Only two transits were confirmed Monday through the IRGC-established "Larak Corridor" looping around Larak Island, according to MarineTraffic.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil trade, and its partial closure since late February has sent crude prices surging and disrupted global shipping lanes. A reopening could ease supply fears but would take months to normalize, with Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, warning that carriers "may not be as eager to return to regular Gulf port calls until they are convinced the region is stable."

Oil Prices and Shipping Costs Reflect Fragile Ceasefire

Crude oil futures fell more than 4% to around $92 a barrel Tuesday after the weekend's news of a potential US-Iran deal, but the CENTCOM denial shows the fragility of the ceasefire in place since April 7. The US launched defensive strikes in southern Iran on Monday targeting Iranian boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites, according to Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a CENTCOM spokesperson.

The ocean freight rate bump catalyzed by the conflict continues to intensify. Drewry's World Container Index rose 6% to $2,712 per 40-foot container, driven by double-digit spikes on Asia-to-Europe routes. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam surged 15% to $2,773 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai-to-Genoa rates jumped 10% to $4,082.

Container shipping data from Vizion showed China-to-Mediterranean cargo increased 48% to 82,372 TEUs in the two weeks through May 20, while China-to-Northern Europe volumes rose 37% to roughly 140,000 TEUs. Carriers are responding with higher rates: MSC will increase FAK levels to $4,700 per 40-foot container from June 1, while CMA CGM added a $500-per-TEU peak season surcharge on Asia-to-Northern Europe containers and Maersk added a $300 charge.

Selective Transit and Uncertain Outlook

Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at MarineTraffic, said the low crossing count shows the absence of fresh attacks has not translated into normalized traffic. "Vessel movement remains narrow, route-dependent and heavily conditioned by Iranian clearance practices," Subasic said. "Even if the ceasefire holds, Hormuz access is likely to remain selective until there is a clear settlement."

The last time the Strait of Hormuz faced a sustained disruption was during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when the Tanker War led to US naval escort operations and a 50% spike in oil prices over six months. While the current situation has not reached that scale, the combination of US strikes, Iranian toll authority announcements, and mixed messaging from Tehran keeps the risk premium embedded in oil and shipping markets.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday the strait must be opened for unrestricted navigation "one way or the other," while Iran's foreign ministry said it is "not seeking to collect tolls" but would charge fees for navigational services. President Trump said negotiations were "proceeding nicely" and described a potential agreement as "a Great Deal for all."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.