Key Takeaways:
- Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and gas flows
- US bases in the Gulf have sustained substantial damage during the conflict
- Gas prices at $4.24/gal remain $1 above last year as inflation hits 3.8%
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US faces strategic reckoning in Gulf as Iran war strains 20% oil chokepoint
The Trump administration's failure to secure the Strait of Hormuz threatens to unravel American military credibility across the Middle East and keep oil prices elevated for months.
Iran's dominance over the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil and natural gas passes — has exposed the limits of American power in the Gulf, with US bases sustaining substantial damage and regional allies questioning Washington's commitment to their defense.
"The Islamic Republic doesn't yet have a military that would allow it to invade its neighbors; it does, however, have the armed forces and the ideology to extort them if no Western power is there to prevent it," wrote Reuel Marc Gerecht, a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Friday.
Gasoline prices averaged $4.24 a gallon nationally Thursday, according to AAA, down 20 cents from the prior week but still more than $1 above a year ago. Inflation climbed to 3.8% in April, the highest since President Donald Trump returned to office, while a Politico poll found more than 60% of Americans said the war with Iran has made everyday life more expensive. Nearly half of voters blamed Trump for the state of the economy, compared with 28% who held former President Joe Biden responsible.
The stakes extend beyond the pump. If Washington cannot secure the waterway — a mission that during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988 cost the US Navy two frigates damaged, 37 sailors killed and 31 wounded — the Islamic Republic may achieve what no regional power has since the British withdrawal from the Gulf in 1971: effective control over the world's most important energy chokepoint.
Saudi resilience masks Gulf anxiety
While Saudi Arabia's economy has proved surprisingly resilient — restaurants remain full and companies continue expansion plans, according to a Reuters report — the broader Gulf Cooperation Council is fraying. Iran's limited attacks on Omani territory in March and May signaled to Muscat that Washington can no longer guarantee its security, the op-ed authors noted. Oman, which has long tried to improve relations with Tehran, may agree to establish a tolling regimen with the Islamic Republic for ships passing through the strait.
Kuwait's airport suffered fire and damage from an Iranian drone crash, while vessels continue to queue outside the Strait of Hormuz waiting for passage. The US House voted last week for a measure that would end hostilities with Iran unless Congress approves further action, a sign of eroding political support for the conflict.
A doctrine under fire
Trump's 2026 National Defense Strategy sought "to empower regional allies and partners to take primary responsibility for deterring and defending against Iran and its proxies," language that Gerecht and Takeyh said signaled America's unreliability as a strategic partner. The current war has so far confirmed that assessment, they wrote.
The US has been the reluctant hegemon in the Gulf since the British departure in 1971. The Carter Doctrine of 1980 declared that any attempt by an outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf would be repelled "by any means necessary, including military force." Today, that commitment is being tested as it has not been since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged the trade-off during a Fox News appearance Wednesday. "We want them lower everywhere and we certainly want them lower in the United States, and those days are coming. But we're paying a price to solve a huge problem," he said of gasoline prices.
The op-ed authors argued that withdrawing US bases from the region — even if many have been damaged — would be a strategic disaster. "Whatever credibility Washington still has in the Middle East depends on its willingness to maintain bases in the Gulf and in Iraq," they wrote. "It's all we have now in an otherwise deteriorating situation."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
