A 14-point framework to end the conflict between the US and Iran is nearing finalization, with President Trump stating an agreement has been “largely negotiated.”
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US, Iran Near 14-Point Peace Framework to End Conflict
The United States and Iran are closing in on a 14-point peace framework to end a month-long conflict, with President Donald Trump announcing on May 23 that a deal has been “largely negotiated,” a move that could sharply reduce geopolitical risk roiling global markets.
"Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly," Trump said on social media, following a series of calls with leaders from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other regional powers.
The framework, mediated by Pakistan, aims to secure an end to hostilities on all fronts, lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and establish strategic arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of global petroleum trade. However, Iranian officials noted that complex issues like the country's nuclear program and sanctions relief will be deferred to later negotiations.
The potential agreement, which Iranian officials hope could be finalized within 30 to 60 days, stands to calm oil and equity markets that have been on edge since the conflict began. For investors, a de-escalation would unwind the significant risk premium embedded in assets, though the exclusion of the nuclear issue from the initial framework suggests the hardest negotiations are yet to come.
Path to De-escalation
The diplomatic breakthrough follows a period of high tension, including joint Israeli-US airstrikes on February 28 that killed senior Iranian figures and triggered retaliatory strikes from Tehran. A fragile ceasefire has held since April 8, allowing for indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman. The current 14-point memorandum of understanding is the most significant signal of de-escalation to date.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed the "trend towards rapprochement," stating the framework's primary goal is ending the war and lifting the US naval blockade imposed on April 13. While the draft addresses control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for global oil shipments, Baqaei clarified that Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief would be handled in separate, more detailed negotiations.
Market Implications and Sanctions
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has historically injected significant volatility into markets, and the recent conflict was no exception. A resolution would likely lead to lower crude oil prices and a broader "risk-on" rally in equities. The crypto market, which has shown sensitivity to the conflict, is also watching closely. US authorities have frozen $344 million in crypto assets linked to Iranian operations, with on-chain analysis identifying an additional $2.3 billion in related flows.
While a peace deal may be on the horizon, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated core US demands, stating "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium." This highlights the significant hurdles that remain, even if an initial framework is agreed upon. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 set the stage for the current tensions, and a lasting resolution will require addressing the complex issues that caused the original deal to founder.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin heads higher as President Trump announces Iran peace agreement[2] U.S. and Iran officials signal progress in negotiations amid fragile ceasefire[3] Iran moves closer to agreement with US as Trump pauses military action, crypto markets eye de-escalation[4] Iran, US edge closer to 14-point peace framework, gaps remain[5] President Trump says deal to end the nearly 3-month war with Iran has been ‘largely negotiated’
