US secret Hormuz oil corridor moves 10 million barrels daily

The US military has established a covert shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, moving about 10 million barrels of crude daily — roughly half the pre-war volume — as the Iran conflict drags on.

"A tremendous amount of oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz," President Donald Trump told Axios on Wednesday, adding that Washington is not currently negotiating with Tehran.

The operation, coordinated by a task force at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, guides 15 to 20 tankers nightly along a southern channel hugging Oman's coast, with outbound volumes reaching 15 million to 20 million barrels on peak nights. The corridor became viable after a two-week US Central Command campaign degraded Iran's coastal radar and maritime surveillance systems, forcing Iranian forces to fire drones and cruise missiles at estimated transit areas rather than precise targets. US Air Force fighters intercepted eight Iranian drones and two cruise missiles earlier this week, officials said.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil consumption and a quarter of traded crude, making the corridor's reliability a key swing factor for prices. Trump said crude prices have fallen to $84-$85 a barrel from fears of $350, as the secret route and record pipeline construction reduce the waterway's strategic premium. With no talks underway and Tehran's monitoring capacity degraded, the corridor's durability will hinge on whether Iran can rebuild its surveillance network or shift attacks to the Gulf's northern approaches.

The operation extends beyond escorting loaded tankers. US forces also guide empty tankers from the Arabian Sea through the strait into the Persian Gulf, where they reload at ports in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait before exiting via the same southern route. Vessels travel in two nightly convoys during set operational windows, passing through multiple checkpoints under US protection.

A US official familiar with the operation said American forces have controlled the southern lane for roughly two months, asserting that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps "doesn't control the strait" even if it may create "nuisances" for shipping. Iran now relies primarily on a small number of repaired radar units and IRGC speedboats for surveillance along the route, the official said.

Hormuz's Strategic Premium Fades

The corridor's emergence marks a shift in the waterway's role as a pressure point. Before the conflict escalated on February 28, roughly 20 million barrels a day transited the strait. The last comparable disruption came during the 2019 tanker attacks, when insurers raised war-risk premiums and several major shippers suspended Gulf calls for weeks. This time, the US military's direct escort role has kept flows at half the pre-war level while Trump declared the strait US territory.

Trump said crude prices are declining again, noting that "they were talking about $350 a barrel, but today it's $84-$85." He added that "people found other alternatives" to the strait, with record numbers of pipelines being built. Kpler shipping data showed six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, though the tally excludes tankers transiting with transponders switched off — a practice the secret corridor relies on.

What Happens Next

The corridor's sustainability depends on two variables: Iran's ability to rebuild its coastal surveillance network and the pace of alternative export infrastructure. US officials said Iran's reduced monitoring has forced it to launch strikes toward estimated transit areas, with several ships sustaining damage despite US interceptions. If Tehran regains targeting capability, insurers could again raise war-risk premiums, pushing up the cost of Gulf crude for Asian buyers.

For now, the operation has partially mitigated what analysts had feared would be a catastrophic supply shock. The strait also carries about 11.4 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas daily, and the corridor's success in keeping oil flowing offers a template for LNG transits should the conflict escalate further.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.