WTO trade barometer slips to 101.7 as growth moderates from January

Global merchandise trade growth is moderating but remains above its long-term average, the World Trade Organization's latest barometer shows.

The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer fell to 101.7 in June from 102.3 in January, signaling that while the pace of cross-border trade is slowing, it continues to expand faster than the historical trend. A reading above 100 indicates exports and imports are rising at a rate exceeding the average recorded over recent decades.

"Global merchandise trade appears to have remained resilient despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which seem to have been partly offset by rising demand for electronic components related to investment in artificial intelligence," the WTO said in its report.

World trade flows increased at a rapid pace in the first three months of 2026, boosted by the boom in AI-related investment. That followed a strong pickup in volumes during 2025, which surprised many economists given the sharp rise in US tariffs on Chinese goods and other trading partners.

The slight decline in the barometer suggests the tailwinds from AI investment may be fading as a growth driver, while the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The rerouting of crude oil and cargo to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports has provided a critical lifeline for Gulf trade, but prolonged disruption could erode investor confidence and weaken medium-term growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund warned this week.

AI demand offsets geopolitical drag

The resilience in trade flows masks diverging fortunes across sectors. Demand for semiconductors and electronic components used in AI data centers has surged, helping offset weakness in other categories affected by the Middle East conflict. The WTO noted that rising demand for AI-related electronics was a key factor keeping the barometer above the 100 threshold.

The last time the barometer hovered near current levels was in mid-2024, when global trade was recovering from a prolonged downturn driven by elevated interest rates and weak consumer demand. That recovery was followed by a strong 2025, during which trade volumes picked up despite the imposition of higher US tariffs.

What's at stake for global trade

The barometer's trajectory over the coming months will depend on two opposing forces: whether AI-related investment continues to drive demand for electronic components, and whether the Middle East conflict escalates further, disrupting additional trade routes. The IMF this week cut its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to about 2%, down from an April estimate of 3.1%, citing the conflict's impact on the region.

For global trade-dependent sectors — from shipping and logistics to commodities and manufacturing — the barometer signals a period of sustained but moderating activity. That is mildly positive for trade-sensitive equities but does not provide a clear catalyst for significant price movements in either direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.