XRP staged its strongest single-day gain in weeks after forced short liquidations and a golden cross against Bitcoin pulled the token off its lowest level in 19 months.
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XRP rebounds 2.1% from 19-month low on short squeeze, golden cross
XRP rose 2.1% to $1.16 on July 4 after touching $1.136, its lowest level in 19 months, as a cascade of forced short liquidations accelerated buying.
"XRP's golden cross against BTC — where its 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day — is a momentum signal that tends to attract algorithmic and trend-following flows," said Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen.
Coinglass data shows $8.2 million in XRP short positions were liquidated across Binance, OKX and Bybit in the 24 hours to 14:00 UTC, the largest single-day short squeeze since mid-June. Open interest rose 4.3% to 412 million XRP over the same period, suggesting new positioning rather than mere covering.
The move brings XRP back above the $1.12 resistance zone — the 20-day EMA and Bollinger midline — that had capped every rally since June 15. A daily close above $1.20, where the 50-day EMA sits, would mark the first confirmed break of the downtrend that has held since mid-2025.
On-Chain Metrics Align With the Recovery Setup
The golden cross against BTC adds a technical tailwind. XRP's 50-day moving average relative to Bitcoin crossed above its 200-day equivalent on July 3, a pattern that preceded XRP rallies of 34% and 28% in the two prior instances over the past 18 months, according to TradingView data.
Active addresses on the XRP Ledger climbed 72% between June 14 and June 27 to nearly 39,500, Santiment data shows, while exchange net outflows deepened to 123 million XRP on June 29 — roughly triple the level a week earlier. XRP spot ETFs also logged their eighth consecutive week of inflows through June 26, adding $22.99 million in the most recent week, per Bloomberg data.
The leverage reset that preceded this week's squeeze gives the setup room to run. Open interest on Binance had fallen to about 375 million XRP from a peak above 1.3 billion during the second half of 2025, CryptoQuant data shows, clearing out the crowded long positioning that had amplified the selloff.
The key test lies ahead. Resistance clusters at $1.18 (the 0.382 Fibonacci level) and $1.22 (the 20-period EMA on the three-day chart), where roughly 27.4 million XRP were last acquired, per the cost basis heatmap. A break above $1.20 would flip the 50-day EMA from resistance to support and open a path toward $1.31, the 100-day EMA.
On the downside, $1.02 — the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement — is the first line of defense. A daily close below $1.00 would invalidate the recovery thesis and put $0.87 back in play.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] XRP Rebounds From 19-Month Low as Short Squeeze and Golden Cross Emerge[2] XRP clings to $1 as bullish chatter rises, but sellers still control the chart[3] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2060: BTC Long-Term Forecast and Targets[4] XRP Price Prediction for July 2026: Can Buyers Finally Break the Downtrend?[5] XRP holds $1 support as network activity rises and leverage clears out
