Ripple settled its SEC lawsuit, launched a stablecoin and secured a bank charter — yet XRP trades at $1.09, roughly 70% below its all-time high, with no clear floor in sight.
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XRP stays 70% below peak as Ripple wins fail to draw buyers
Ripple settled its SEC lawsuit, launched a stablecoin and secured a bank charter — yet XRP trades at $1.09, roughly 70% below its all-time high, with no clear floor in sight.
XRP fell 0.8% to $1.09 as of 14:00 UTC on July 18, extending a slide that has left the token down 70% from the $3.65 peak it reached in July 2025, even as Ripple closed its long-running SEC lawsuit, launched the RLUSD stablecoin and obtained a full European banking license.
"The divergence between Ripple's corporate wins and XRP's price action is one of the widest in crypto right now," Nina Volkov, a crypto macro analyst, said. "Ripple is building real financial infrastructure, but none of that revenue flows to the token itself."
XRP ETF inflows have collapsed from $131.94 million in May to $59 million in June and to near zero in July, according to data from Farside Investors. Cumulative inflows since the products launched stand at $1.48 billion, but the recent stagnation is stark. On the XRP Ledger, only 2,130 new wallets were created on July 11, the lowest single-day tally since November 2024, signaling declining retail engagement.
The next catalyst is the CLARITY Act, which would codify XRP's commodity status into federal law. The Senate aims for a floor vote before the August 7 recess, but Polymarket puts the probability of 2026 passage at 36%. Without it, institutional buyers remain on the sidelines, and XRP faces a prolonged grind below $1.20 resistance.
Why Ripple's Wins Don't Reach XRP
Ripple secured a full MiCA license in the European Union in early July, allowing it to offer crypto services across all 27 member states. In Japan, regulators approved the RLUSD stablecoin in late June, and SBI Holdings, Ripple's largest outside shareholder, is building institutional XRP lending infrastructure. The XRP Ledger crossed 1 million AI agent payments this month, with autonomous software paying for services in the token.
Yet none of these milestones have translated into buying pressure. Of the more than 300 institutions on Ripple's payment network, only about 40% actually use XRP to settle transactions. The rest run Ripple's software without touching the token, meaning the company's revenue growth — from licensing fees, stablecoin spreads and custody services — accrues to Ripple the business, not to XRP holders.
Whale Accumulation Meets Institutional Apathy
On-chain data tells a split story. Large wallets scooped up roughly 70 million XRP in the past week, according to Santiment, and exchange reserves at Binance slipped to 2.61 billion tokens, the lowest since February 2026 — a sign that holders are moving coins into cold storage. The monthly TD Sequential indicator triggered a buy signal at $1.109, and the weekly RSI dipped to 29.6 in June, a level that preceded an 1,100% rally in 2022.
But institutional demand has evaporated. Weekly net flows into XRP spot ETFs have dropped from $131.94 million in May to near zero in July. Across the seven active US XRP ETFs, total assets under management amount to roughly $1 billion, locked in 964.7 million tokens. The CLARITY Act, which would remove regulatory uncertainty by writing XRP's commodity classification into law, remains stuck in the Senate with a 36% passage probability for 2026, according to Polymarket.
The Levels That Matter
XRP trades 4.72% below its 50-day moving average of $1.14. A break above $1.20 would end the year-long downtrend and open a path toward the June high of $2.34. On the downside, a drop below the 200-day EMA could expose sub-$1 levels and the $0.93 support zone. The relative strength index sits at 45.5, neutral, offering little directional conviction.
The earliest realistic window for a sustained recovery is 2029 to 2030, when the next Bitcoin halving cycle would be peaking and when institutional money from a potential CLARITY Act passage could finally be flowing. Until then, XRP remains a token with improving fundamentals and no fresh buyers.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
