BOCI Hikes CNOOC Target to $33, Bets Oil Prices Have Peaked

Edgen Stock·Mar 18 2026, 09:47

Share to

Share to

Copy link

Key Takeaways

Bank of China International (BOCI) raised its price targets for major Chinese oil companies, including CNOOC and PETROCHINA, forecasting that the current oil price spike from the Strait of Hormuz conflict may be temporary. While maintaining a Neutral stance on the sector, the bank sees selective opportunities and advises investors to consider taking profits from the recent price increase.

BOCI raised its target price on CNOOC to $33, citing the company's resilience to China's windfall tax due to its significant overseas production.
The bank's base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz blockade will ease within a month, which it predicts would cause a "drastic drop" in oil prices from current levels above $100 per barrel.
Upgrades also include PETROCHINA (to $11.62) and SINOPEC (to $5.12), based on revised higher oil price forecasts for 2026-2027.

BOCI Calls Peak Oil Price on Hormuz De-escalation Bet

Bank of China International (BOCI) argues that oil prices, which have climbed above $100 per barrel, may have reached their peak. The analysis hinges on the bank's base-case assumption that the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved within one month. Should this de-escalation occur, BOCI forecasts a "drastic drop" in prices. The firm reiterated its Neutral rating on China's oil industry and suggested investors consider locking in profits from the recent price run-up driven by geopolitical tensions.

CNOOC Leads Upgrades With New $33 Price Target

Despite its cautious sector outlook, BOCI upgraded price targets for three major Chinese energy firms. CNOOC (00883.HK) saw its target price increased significantly to $33 from $25.06, with a reiterated Buy rating. BOCI noted that as a pure upstream producer, CNOOC benefits directly from higher oil prices, and its large proportion of overseas output helps dilute the financial impact of China's windfall tax. PETROCHINA (00857.HK) also received a target price lift to $11.62 from $9.62, reflecting a 49% increase in its 2026 earnings forecast. SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK) had its target raised to $5.12 from $4.21, though its rating remains at Hold, with BOCI anticipating it will see the largest earnings decline among its peers in 2025.

Analyst Call Contrasts Market Panic Over $100 Crude

BOCI's perspective offers a notable counterpoint to the widespread market anxiety that has propelled oil prices to multi-year highs. On March 17, Brent crude futures rose 2.7% to $102.95 a barrel as the conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade—intensified. The disruption has forced major producers like the UAE to slash output by more than half and prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to authorize releases from strategic reserves to stabilize the market.