JPMorgan Upgrades CNOOC, Lifts Target Price to $31

Edgen Stock·Mar 10 2026, 04:18

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Key Takeaways

JPMorgan upgraded CNOOC to Overweight from Neutral, significantly increasing its price target based on a more bullish outlook for crude oil prices. The bank cited escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a primary driver for potential short-term price spikes and a higher long-term price floor, directly boosting CNOOC's earnings forecasts.

Rating Upgraded: JPMorgan raised its rating on CNOOC's Hong Kong-listed shares (00883.HK) to Overweight from Neutral.
Target Price Increased: The price target for the Hong Kong shares was lifted by approximately 35% from $23 to $31.
EPS Forecasts Raised: To reflect higher oil price assumptions, the bank increased its 2026 and 2027 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for CNOOC by 41% and 19%, respectively.

JPMorgan Lifts CNOOC Target 35% to $31

JPMorgan upgraded its rating for CNOOC (00883.HK) to Overweight from a previous Neutral stance, signaling renewed confidence in the energy giant's prospects. The bank increased its target price for the Hong Kong-listed shares by nearly 35% to $31, up from $23. A similar upgrade was issued for CNOOC's A-shares, with the target price raised from RMB30 to RMB47. The revision is based on CNOOC's high sensitivity to oil price movements, as crude oil constitutes 70% of its total production structure.

Middle East Tensions Drive 41% EPS Forecast Hike

The upgrade is driven by JPMorgan's revised forecast for global oil prices, which anticipates a long-term price of US$80 per barrel. The bank noted that escalating conflicts in the Middle East could push short-term oil prices above US$100 per barrel, providing significant upside for major oil producers. To reflect this more bullish commodity outlook, JPMorgan increased its 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast for CNOOC by 41% and its 2027 forecast by 19%. This fundamental reassessment of CNOOC's earnings power underpins the bank's more optimistic valuation.