Bitcoin forms golden cross as $3.8 billion ETF inflows fuel rally

Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day counterpart last week, a golden cross, as US spot ETFs absorbed $3.8 billion in net inflows.

Rain, a market commentator who tracks Bitcoin technicals, said Friday's employment report triggered the pullback rather than causing it, with strong hiring reducing the Federal Reserve's justification for lowering rates.

SoSoValue recorded $986.9 million in net inflows during the week ending Sept. 4, with $730.8 million arriving Thursday before flows slowed to $174.6 million Friday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust drew $117.4 million Friday, while Fidelity's fund added $57.2 million. IBIT's net assets stood at $62.52 billion on Sept. 4, roughly 62 percent of the $101.3 billion combined sector total — the strongest three-week inflow stretch of 2026.

The golden cross arrives as Bitcoin trades near $79,671, down about 2 percent from $81,265 on Sept. 3. The asset lost the $80,000 handle after the US added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent and prompting traders to reassess rate-cut expectations. Bitcoin futures open interest sits near $54.42 billion on centralized venues, per CoinGlass.

Historical patterns temper the bullish case. Golden crosses have sometimes preceded rallies that faded within weeks, and Bitcoin also fell below its 50-week moving average on Friday. Ted Pillows, a technical analyst, identified that level as a decision zone — a weekly close above it would return control to buyers, while another close below would strengthen the case for a deeper correction toward $78,700.

The Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting is the next scheduled event that could move prices, with inflation data due Sept. 11 potentially reshaping rate expectations beforehand. If ETF inflows maintain their current pace, Bitcoin may hold above $80,000; a reversal in flows would expose the $78,700 support level.

The concentration of flows in IBIT — which has collected $63.9 billion in cumulative net inflows since January 2024, exceeding the entire category's $55.5 billion total — means the fund increasingly dictates Bitcoin's marginal demand. When IBIT absorbs redemptions from rivals like Grayscale's GBTC, which has shed $27.7 billion, the category stays net positive. When IBIT reverses, the entire group can flip negative in a single session, as it did Sept. 1 when the category posted $236.5 million in outflows.

Ethereum spot ETFs drew $130.3 million during the same week, an 82.3 percent decline from the prior week, as capital tilted heavily toward Bitcoin products. The divergence shows how ETF demand is concentrating in Bitcoin specifically rather than across digital assets broadly.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.