Bitcoin slips below $64,000 as rally stalls at key resistance level

Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim the $64,000 level has faltered, leaving the recovery rally at a critical juncture that could determine whether the next move is a breakout or a deeper pullback.

Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $63,305 by 22:04 UTC on Tuesday after failing to breach the $64,000-$64,500 resistance zone, ending a week-long recovery that had pushed the asset to its highest level since June 22.

"Bitcoin got rejected from the $64,500-$65,000 resistance zone," Ted Pillows, a cryptocurrency technical analyst, said on X. "A daily close below $62,500-$62,800 could push Bitcoin toward $60,000."

The rejection came as US military strikes on Iranian assets in the Strait of Hormuz region sent crude oil surging more than 5% and dragged US equity indexes lower, with the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 2.1%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $265.7 million in net inflows Monday, building on the $221.7 million recorded July 2, though the price action suggests macro headwinds are overwhelming institutional demand in the near term.

The $62,500-$62,800 support band now represents the line between a healthy consolidation and a retest of the $60,000 level, with traders watching Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes for the next directional catalyst.

Liquidity Pools Point Higher, but Structure Remains Bearish

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin establishing a base around the $58,000-$59,000 demand region before producing an impulsive rally that pushed into the descending trendline defining the corrective structure since mid-June. A liquidation heatmap from Coinglass confirms a concentration of liquidity above the current price, particularly around the $64,000-$66,000 region, making it a logical near-term target if buyers maintain momentum.

However, the daily chart tells a more cautious story. Bitcoin remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to slope lower. The $64,000-$66,500 supply zone aligns with previous support turned resistance and has capped every relief rally since the June breakdown. A confirmed move above this region would expose the next major resistance near $72,000-$74,000, while rejection could send the price back toward the $60,000 support zone.

Correlation Flip Adds to Uncertainty

Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq experienced a dramatic reversal, swinging from -0.87 to +0.72 within days, according to trader Daan Crypto Trades. This shift indicates Bitcoin is currently trading more like a high-beta technology stock than a safe-haven asset, leaving it exposed to further downside if equity markets continue to sell off as geopolitical tensions escalate.

John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, described Bitcoin's price action as reaching "a critical juncture" and is monitoring for signs of a potential long-term trend reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.